Indicator scoreboard
EMU - December harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.2 percent and 2.3 percent when compared with last year. Core HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose 0.1 percent and 2.2 percent on the year. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed foods - the core measure favored by the ECB - rose 0.1 percent and 2.3 percent on the year. Higher prices for energy, hotels & restaurants, recreation & culture, and health costs contributed to the index's rise. Eight of the 12 member countries reported annual inflation rates above 2.0 percent.

November seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus with the rest of the world was €9.2 billion, up from the surplus of €7.4 billion in October. Exports rose 2 percent while imports rose 1 percent.

Germany - January ZEW economic expectations index rose to 14, up for the first time in seven months. Yet the current conditions index rose only 0.7 points to minus 94.7, the second lowest level in the index's history. The ZEW surveyed 323 German financial experts from December 23 to January 21 for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for major industrial economies. The index is often considered a precursor to the important Ifo index sentiment readings.

November seasonally and workday adjusted manufacturing orders were revised down slightly to an increase of 1.4 percent from the originally reported climb of 1.7 percent. Foreign orders were revised down to a 3.8 percent increase from the original 4.3 percent increase, while domestic orders were revised down to a decline of 0.6 percent from the original drop of 0.4 percent.

November seasonally adjusted industrial production was revised down slightly to a 2.4 percent increase from the 2.5 percent reading originally reported. The downward revision was due entirely to a sharp downward change in energy output. Manufacturing output, on the other hand, was revised up. Industrial production excluding construction - the figure that Eurostat uses to calculate eurozone industrial output - was also revised down slightly, to an increase of 2.3 percent from an initial 2.4 percent.

December seasonally adjusted producer prices rose 0.3 percent and 0.9 percent when compared with last year. The cost of oil products rose 3.6 percent in the month, with light heating oil prices increasing 13.7 percent.

France - December seasonally and calendar adjusted consumer spending on manufactured goods bounced up 1.6 percent and 2.2 percent when compared with last year, boosted by higher textile and leather goods sales. Auto sales jumped 3.0 percent and were up 3.4 percent on the year. Spending excluding the auto sector (and medical products) rose 1.7 percent and 2.1 percent on the year.

Italy - November industrial orders rose 1.2 percent on the year reversing the 1.2 percent drop in October. Domestic orders jumped 1.9 percent while foreign orders eked up 0.1 percent. Domestic orders account for around 62 percent of the overall index, with foreign orders making up the rest. November seasonally adjusted orders data, which are not closely followed by most analysts, gained 2.3 percent on the month after a 3.7 percent dive in October. Domestic orders rose 2.3 percent while orders from abroad increased by 2.2 percent.

November retail sales slipped 0.2 percent but rose 1.8 percent when compared with last year. Analysts do not closely watch retail sales data because they show no correlation with consumer spending as published in quarterly GDP statistics. ISTAT, which does not use its own retail sales data to compile its private consumption statistics, says its retail sales data under-estimate true sales' growth and is not reliable due to an outdated sample of outlets. Starting with the January 2003 release, ISTAT said it will re-base its index, with a 2000 base year to replace the current 1995 one. The new index will entail a considerably higher weighting for large retail outlets, which will make up some 23 percent of the index instead of 16 percent under the current index.

Britain - December retail price (RPI) index rose 0.2 percent and 2.9 percent when compared with last year. The retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX) rose 0.1 percent and 2.7 percent on the year. The main upward impact came from rising house and gasoline prices. These upward influences were offset by large declines in clothing, footwear and food prices. Service sector inflation remained stable at 4.8 percent, while goods price inflation was driven lower by the decreased clothing and footwear costs to minus 0.4 percent from minus 0.1 percent previously.

December retail sales volumes rose 1.1 percent and 6.4 percent when compared with last year. The annual rise was the highest since April 2002. Heavy discounting helped to push volume growth during the month. National Statistics stressed that caution was required in assessing data around the Christmas period, as there were difficulties with seasonal adjustments. Sales growth was broadly based.

Fourth quarter gross domestic product climbed 0.4 percent and 2.2 percent when compared with last year. Output of the service sector slowed to 0.6 percent on the quarter and 2.2 percent on the year, after having risen 0.9 percent and 2.5 percent respectively in third quarter. It is also estimated that output of the production industries fell on the quarter. This was led by a decline in manufacturing output. Output of utilities and extractive industries was estimated to have risen on the quarter. Annual growth for the year 2002 slowed to 1.7 percent from 2 percent in 2001, the weakest growth rate since 1992.

Asia
Japan - November seasonally adjusted tertiary activity index, which measures business at retailers, utilities and other service providers, fell 0.7 percent and dropped 1.3 percent when compared with last year. The drop in the tertiary index helped drag the all industry activity index down 0.8 percent, its biggest fall since April. It was the third straight month that the all industry activity index declined. The all industry index, which was unchanged from a year ago, serves as a proxy for gross domestic product, because it adds industrial production, construction, agriculture and other components to the tertiary index. The tertiary index accounts for about 60 percent of the all industry index.

Americas
Canada - December consumer prices fell by 0.3 percent, largely due to an 18.7 percent tumble in the nation's electricity index, which in turn was almost entirely due to a 50 percent drop in the electricity index for the province of Ontario. The CPI rose 3.9 percent on the year. Core inflation, defined as the all items index excluding food and energy, was up 0.1 percent and 3.9 percent when compared with last year. Apart from electricity, clothing prices were 3.6 percent lower due to pre-Christmas sales. It was the largest monthly decrease since 1982. Consumers also paid 2.6 percent less for gasoline than in November. Upward pressures came from a 6.2 percent increase in automobile insurance premiums and 5.0 percent higher prices for vegetables. Seasonally adjusted CPI edged down 0.2 percent but was up 3.5 percent on the year.

November retail sales fell 0.6 percent after a sharp gain of 1.6 percent in October, because of declines in automobile and clothing purchases. Retail sales in most categories were essentially flat. Excluding sales by motor and recreational vehicle dealers, retail sales were up 0.1 percent after a 1.4 percent jump in October. The automotive sector overall declined 1.7 percent with motor and recreational vehicle dealer sales falling 2.7 percent and new motor vehicle sales dropping 4.7 percent. When compared with last year, retail sales were up 5.2 percent.

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