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Federal Funds Rate vs. Bank Prime Rate
Risk Spread on Corporate Bonds
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Risk Spread on Municipal Bonds

Risk Spread on Municipal Bonds

Long Term Perspective
The spread between the 10-year Treasury note yield and municipal bond yields is usually negative. That is, yields on Treasury securities are higher than on municipal bonds because the interest on muni-bonds is free from federal income taxes and the yield represents a tax-free yield rather than a taxable yield as it does for Treasuries and other corporate bonds. The reduced supply of 30-year Treasury bonds beginning in 2000 led to a sharp reversal in the normal trend. (June yields are not yet available; thus we can't update Q2 figures for the municipal bonds.)

Spread between Treasury Note and:1990s AverageRecession Average
Aaa Municipal Bond:-90 basis points-154 basis points
Aa Municipal Bond:-80 basis points-140 basis points
A Municipal Bond:-70 basis points-128 basis points
Baa Municipal Bond:-56 basis points-114 basis points

Short Term Perspective
Yields on municipal bonds came down in 2000. However, the drop in these yields was minor relative to the decline in Treasury yields. As a result, the average spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the municipal bond of various risk categories narrowed significantly and actually turned positive in 2000 and 2001. The spread is usually negative by a significant margin, but the reduced supply of 30-year bonds coupled with an increased demand for the new 10-year Treasury benchmark led to a reversal in the normal trend. In fact, the yield on the Baa-rated muni-bond is much higher than the yield on 10-year Treasuries, and even the A bond is higher through October! November data is not yet available for municipal bonds.

Spread between Treasury Note and:2000-01 Average
Aaa Municipal Bond:-22 basis points
Aa Municipal Bond:-15 basis points
A Municipal Bond:0 basis points
Baa Municipal Bond:+44 basis points





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