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Long Term Perspective
The spread between the 10-year Treasury note yield and municipal bond yields is usually negative. That is, yields on Treasury securities are higher than on municipal bonds because the interest on muni-bonds is free from federal income taxes and the yield represents a tax-free yield rather than a taxable yield as it does for Treasuries and other corporate bonds. The reduced supply of 30-year Treasury bonds beginning in 2000 led to a sharp reversal in the normal trend. (June yields are not yet available; thus we can't update Q2 figures for the municipal bonds.)
Spread between Treasury Note and: | 1990s Average | Recession Average |
Aaa Municipal Bond: | -90 basis points | -154 basis points |
Aa Municipal Bond: | -80 basis points | -140 basis points |
A Municipal Bond: | -70 basis points | -128 basis points |
Baa Municipal Bond: | -56 basis points | -114 basis points |
Short Term Perspective
Yields on municipal bonds came down in 2000. However, the drop in these yields was minor relative to the decline in Treasury yields. As a result, the average spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the municipal bond of various risk categories narrowed significantly and actually turned positive in 2000 and 2001. The spread is usually negative by a significant margin, but the reduced supply of 30-year bonds coupled with an increased demand for the new 10-year Treasury benchmark led to a reversal in the normal trend. In fact, the yield on the Baa-rated muni-bond is much higher than the yield on 10-year Treasuries, and even the A bond is higher through October! November data is not yet available for municipal bonds.
Spread between Treasury Note and: | 2000-01 Average |
Aaa Municipal Bond: | -22 basis points |
Aa Municipal Bond: | -15 basis points |
A Municipal Bond: | 0 basis points |
Baa Municipal Bond: | +44 basis points |
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