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Simply Economics
Markets at a Glance
Recap of US Markets
The Economy
The Bottom Line
Looking Ahead


Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     12/27/02

Looking Ahead: Week of December 30 to January 3
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
The NAPM-Chicago is predicted to edge down to 53 in December after shooting up to a level of 54.3 in November. Despite the slight decline, it still represents a growing manufacturing sector in this region. (Forecast range: 50 to 55)

The market consensus shows that existing home sales will decrease 1.7 percent in November to a 5.7 million-unit rate after jumping more than 6 percent last month. Historically, new and existing home sales used to move in tandem each month; recently, existing home sales decline when new home sales rise, and vice versa. New home sales jumped 5.7 percent in November. (Forecast range: 5.50 to 5.85 million-unit rate)

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that the Conference Board's consumer confidence index will post a rise in December to 85 from November's level of 84.1. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose and the two measures often move in the same direction each month, if not by the same magnitude. (Forecast range: 84 to 88)

Wednesday
Best Wishes for a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year from the Econoday staff!

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will edge up 2,000 to 380,000 in the week ended December 28 from last week's level of 378,000. Changes in jobless claims are typically more volatile in the fall and winter because of a variety of holidays; it becomes more difficult to adjust the data for seasonal variation. (Forecast range: -8,000 to +12,000)

The ISM manufacturing index is predicted to reach 50 in December from a level of 49.2 in November. Any level over 50 percent represents a growing manufacturing sector. The composite index has been below 50 for three months. (Forecast range: 49 to 52)

Friday
The market consensus shows that construction spending will record a 0.2 percent hike in November, about the same as the gains of the past few months. Residential construction spending has softened, but nonresidential construction has not yet picked up the slack. (Forecast range: -0.8 to +0.7 percent)

Economists are predicting that motor vehicle sales improved in December. (Did you get one in your stocking?) Domestic car sales are expected to show only a minor uptick to a 5.7 million-unit rate in December from a 5.6 million-unit rate in November. (Forecast range: 5.4 to 6.0 million-unit rate) In contrast, light truck sales are estimated to have sold at a 7.5 million-unit rate, up from November's 7 million-unit pace. (Forecast range: 7.2 to 7.8 million-unit rate)



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