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Recap of Global Markets

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, December 23, 2002

Europe and Britain
The London FTSE and Paris CAC managed to pull themselves out of midweek doldrums and finish on the plus side. Spectacular gains on Monday plus a positive reading on Friday managed to override the midweek slump. The Frankfurt DAX wasn't that lucky. The DAX finished the week in negative territory despite bookend gains on Monday and Friday. The German economy is being besieged by labor problems and desultory economic growth. With European and London markets closed for several days over the next two weeks, investors were not sorry to see the 2002 investment year end. As in the United States, three down-years in a row is rare. Investors will have to find ways to ensure that it doesn't happen for a fourth year.

Asia
Only the Australian all ordinaries and the South Korean Kospi managed to hold their heads above water and end the week in positive territory. However, in Japan it was another story as both the Nikkei and Topix once again approached 19-year lows. Economic data continue to point to slowing growth if not another recession. This was underlined by gloomy economic assessments from both the government and Bank of Japan. The Bank, which met at the beginning of the week, left its monetary policy unchanged as it continues to wait for government restructuring programs.

The South Korean Kospi continues to outshine all other indexes followed here and is the only one that is higher than its 2001 year-end close. But the Kospi has lost ground recently. The index was dragged down by Wall Street's weakness and jitters over North Korea's nuclear program. But it apparently was not affected by the run up to the just completed presidential election. Most investors are hoping that the new president, Roh Moo-hyun, will implement measures to stimulate the economy. The market is now up 2.3 percent in 2002. After a strong start, the Kospi was pushed back by a second-quarter slowdown in consumer spending and export growth. In the past few months, however, exports have recovered, rising 24.1 percent in November when compared with last year. But many believe exports will slow down again in 2003 in line with Western economies' frail growth. South Korea grew about 5.8 percent this year, with 2003 estimates calling for the economy to slow to about a 4.5 percent growth rate.

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