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Economic Projections for 2002 -- Updated 7/16/02   Governors and Bank Presidents Indicator   Range Central Tendency (Change, 4th quarter to 4th quarter) Nominal GDP   4.5 - 5.5 % 4.75 - 5.25% Real GDP   3 - 4% 3.5 - 3.75 % PCE chain-type price index   1.25 - 2.0% 1.5 - 1.75% (Average Level, 4th quarter) Civilian unemployment rate   5.5 - 6.25% 5.75 - 6.0% Economic Projections for 2003 -- Updated 7/16/02   Governors and Bank Presidents Indicator   Range Central Tendency (Change, 4th quarter to 4th quarter) Nominal GDP   4.5 - 6.0 % 5.0 - 5.75% Real GDP   3.25 - 4.25% 3.5 - 4.0 % PCE chain-type price index   1.0 - 2.25% 1.5 - 1.75% (Average Level, 4th quarter) Civilian unemployment rate   5.0 - 6.0% 5.25 - 5.5% Alternative Inflation Measures   •   Gold Prices   •   Employment Cost Index   •   Civilian Unemployment Rate Pool of Available Labor   •   Nonfarm Productivity   •   Treasury Yields   •   Stock Prices   •   Fed Monetary Policy Summary

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