Long Term Perspective
Export demand was sluggish in 1998 and 1999 as foreign economies in the throes of recession tried to get back on their feet. Export growth increased at a healthy clip in 2000 even as the foreign exchange value of the dollar appreciated. 2001 was not a good year for exports and this helped to dampen already weak domestic industrial production. The dollar was considered strong throughout 2001 and a bit of 2002, but the trade weighted dollar actually peaked in 2000.

Short Term Perspective
Exports jumped in September after waffling over the past couple of months. Trade data are still hurt by the effect of the West Coast's longshoreman strike/lockout. Don't expect these figures to get back to normal before October. In reality, our trading partners are growing at an even more anemic rate than the U.S. so the weaker value of the dollar isn't helping to boost demand all that much these days.

Real GDP vs. Final Sales   •   Real Consumer Spending vs. Real Income   •   Debt Burden vs. Savings Rate

Business Fixed Investment vs. Net Cash Flow   •   New Orders   •   Housing Starts vs. Mortgage Rates

Merchandise Exports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar   •   Merchandise Imports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar