Long Term Perspective
New orders for durable goods reveal demand for consumer goods such as cars and home appliances as well as investment equipment such as lathes and computers. Notice that the sharp demand for information technology in the 1990s pointedly reversed direction in 2000. A new reversal occurred in late 2001 as new orders hit bottom. Incidentally, the Census Bureau stopped publishing data on semiconductors in the durable goods and factory orders reports. Thus, information technology is missing a component that used to be included. According to the Census Bureau, chipmakers no longer were willing to contribute to this voluntary survey.

Short Term Perspective
New orders have shown signs of improvement in the past few months - although October orders were not stellar. Durable goods orders jumped in September, spurred by the volatile aircraft sector. High tech orders were picking up, until October came along. This sector could use a boost. Beginning with the March report (published in April), the Census Bureau stopped releasing data on semiconductors because chipmakers were no longer willing to report their orders for this voluntary survey.

Real GDP vs. Final Sales   •   Real Consumer Spending vs. Real Income   •   Debt Burden vs. Savings Rate

Business Fixed Investment vs. Net Cash Flow   •   New Orders   •   Housing Starts vs. Mortgage Rates

Merchandise Exports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar   •   Merchandise Imports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar