Looking Ahead: Week of July 8 to July 12

Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday

Economists are expecting consumer installment credit to rise $6.5 billion in May after gaining $8.8 billion in April. Auto credit was probably down for the month since motor vehicle sales had declined in May. (Forecast range: $4.0 to $7.0 billion)

Thursday

Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will rise 8,000 in the week ended July 6 from last week’s level of 382,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -12,000 to +18,000)

The market consensus shows that the producer price index should remain unchanged in June after declining 0.4 percent in the previous month since energy prices were generally stable during the month. (Forecast range: -0.2 to 0.3 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PPI is expected to inch up 0.1 percent in June after remaining flat last month. (Forecast range: -0.1 to +0.1 percent)

Friday

Economists are looking for a 0.7 percent rise in retail sales for the month of June, nearly reversing the previous month’s drop. Motor vehicle sales rose during the month and that should boost the total. (Forecast range: 0.5 to 0.1 percent) Excluding autos, retail sales are predicted to post a 0.5 percent gain – also reversing last month’s 0.4 percent drop. Consumer spending is on the mend, but the gains are soft. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.8 percent)

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unchanged at 92.4 for the mid-July reading. No doubt, consumers would like to see some improvement in the labor market to feel more secure about economic conditions. (Forecast range: 88 to 94)