Looking Ahead: Week of June 10 to June 14

Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Wednesday

Market players will be closely monitoring the anecdotal evidence coming from the Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon. This will cover data through the first couple of days in June.

Thursday

Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will rise 12,000 in the week ended June 8 from last week’s level of 383,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -8,000 to +17,000)

The consensus forecast shows that retail sales will edge down 0.3 percent in May after gaining 1.2 percent in April. This represents a sharp drop in motor vehicle sales. (Forecast range: -0.5 to +0.5 percent) Excluding autos, retail sales are predicted to inch up 0.3 percent in May, less than the 1 percent hike posted last month. (Forecast range: 0.0 to +0.5 percent).

Economists expect that the producer price index will post a 0.1 percent hike in May after inching down 0.1 percent in the previous month. Energy prices are expected to be less of a problem than recent months. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy, the PPI is predicted to also increase 0.1 percent in May continuing the trend of the past several months. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.3 percent)

Friday

Business inventories are predicted to decline 0.3 percent in April the same magnitude as in March. The pace of inventory liquidation of recent months suggests that the inventory correction is just about over. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.0 percent)

Economists predict that the index of industrial production will rise 0.3 percent in May, less than the 0.4 percent gains of the past two months. The factory workweek was unchanged in May and factory payrolls posted only a modest drop. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.5 percent) At the same time, the capacity utilization rate is predicted to rise to 75.6 percent in May from a level of 75.5 percent in April. (Forecast range: 75.5 to 75.8 percent)

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is expected to inch down to 96.5 in early June from a level of 96.9 in May. Economists are assuming that the negative psychology in the equity market will carry over. (Forecast range: 95 to 98.5)