Looking Ahead: Week of May 20 to May 24

Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday

The index of leading indicators is expected to post a 0.2 percent drop in April after inching up only 0.1 percent in March. Several components declined during the month: consumer confidence, money supply and jobless claims. (Actually, jobless claims rose, but these are a reverse indicator so that a rise in claims acts as a negative on the index.) (Forecast range: -0.4 to 0.0 percent)

Market players are looking for a $70 billion surplus in the Treasury budget for the month of April. Tax receipts surpassed government outlays this month. While a surplus is typical for the month of April, this year’s surplus will be much lower than the surplus of $189.8 billion recorded a year ago! (Forecast range: $68 to 80 billion)

Thursday

Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decline 8,000 in the week ended May 18 to 410,000 from last week’s level of 418,000. It appears that the federal program of re-filings is winding down, although they are still counting for some of the new claims. (Forecast range: -23,000 to +2,000)

The consensus forecast shows that durable goods new orders should rise 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.5 percent in March. Transportation orders could boost the total given a rise in Boeing orders, but economists also expect gains in underlying demand. (Forecast range: -1.0 to +3.0 percent)

Friday

Economists predict that the Commerce Department will revise its estimate for first quarter real GDP growth to 6.1 percent. Upward revisions should come in investment expenditures and net exports. Non-auto retail sales may be revised down slightly. (Forecast range: 5.5 to 6.5 percent) At the same time, the GDP deflator is expected to remain unchanged at a 0.8 percent rate.

The market consensus shows a 0.8 percent gain in new home sales to an 885,000 unit pace in April. While single family starts, new home sales and existing home sales all tend to move in the same direction over the course of the month, variations do occur. Single family starts dropped during the month, but economists are expecting that March’s drop in new home sales will be reversed. (Forecast range: 860,000 to 910,000-unit rate)