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Currencies

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, July 22, 2002

Currencies
It seems every time the economies in Europe or Japan rise falteringly to their feet, something comes along to knock them back down. The latest knock down has come from the tumbling dollar, raising blood pressure highest in Tokyo. While U.S. manufacturers should get a boost from the weaker currency as their products become cheaper and more competitive abroad, export-dependent countries such as Japan and Germany look on unhappily. For example, according to the chief financial officer at Sony, a rise of just one Japanese yen against the dollar can erase ¥8 billion ($69 million) of annual operating profit. A stronger yen (and weaker dollar) makes exports from Japan less competitive and lowers the value of overseas earnings made in dollars when they are repatriated. Overseas sales at the electronics company account for about 70 percent of its revenue.

In Europe, Germany probably will suffer most from the weaker dollar, since its economy is the most open to trade. Last year, exports accounted for 35 percent of German gross domestic product, up from 29 percent just two years ago. Nearly all of the nation's feeble 1 percent of growth has come from foreign demand. Germany can hardly afford a hit to trade, regardless of political reassurances to the contrary.

But given the focus on U.S. equities, the waves of negatives from the media last week posed only minor stumbling blocks to the euro. After breaking parity on Monday with little fanfare, the euro began to move higher in fits and starts reaching $1.0160 on Wednesday before backing off. Also, there is another element that is said to have an underlying yet so far minor influence, and that is the growing number of eurozone scandals that are helping to offset the bad company news that is coming out of the U.S.

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