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Currencies

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, May 13, 2002

Currencies
The dollar was barely higher on the week against both the yen and the euro. Currency trading is being influenced by two major factors. The first is slower-than-expected growth in the United States - and overseas. Many investors had naïve expectations that growth would recover to the pre-millennium days and not the slower recovery that is apparently underway, especially in investment. Yet the need to replace investments that were made in the late 1990s, especially in technology, should provide a boost in the not to distant future. But with the U.S. consumer maintaining a steady spending pace throughout the recession, there may not be the normal kick from pent up demand that normally comes with a recovery.


The yen slipped slightly on the week. Japan's finance minister, Masajuro Shiokawa, said currency rates should be decided by each country's economic fundamentals and not be manipulated artificially. These comments could be interpreted to mean the government thinks that the worst is over and that the economy will be able to sustain a higher exchange rate now that the export sector has revived. Analysts thought this was an unusual remark for the most interventionist country of them all - Japan! The Japanese have been very keen recently to point out that they are not interfering in the market but simply underscoring that economic fundamentals continue to justify a weaker yen.

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