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The Bottom Line

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, March 18, 2002

Domestic and international markets alike will pounce on Tuesday's FOMC announcement, looking for underlying directions on future interest rate moves. Analysts are expecting no change in the target Fed funds rate of 1.75 percent, and many expect the FOMC to adopt a neutral stance between the risks of weakness and inflation. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan is not expected to change policy just prior to the end of the fiscal year on March 31.

OPEC's decision to leave production quotas at their current levels was not unexpected. But higher oil could pressure inflation and hinder the budding recoveries. The crude oil markets have already forced prices higher because they are uneasy about the political situation in the Middle East combined with the United States' desire to punish Iraq. A question mark about the outcome, however, rests with Russia's willingness to go along with OPEC's request to continue producing at a reduced level. Russia currently ranks as the second largest crude producer in the world.

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