Looking Ahead: Week of December 24 to January 4
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Please note that the forecasts for the week of December 31 are very preliminary and are likely to be revised next week. Check Consensus Reports on the Econoday calendar.

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will increase 16,000 to 400,000 in the week ended December 22 after an 11,000 drop in weekly claims last week. It is important to remember that weekly jobless claims often fluctuate more sharply from week to week in the period between October and February when holidays are greater in number than from March to September. (Forecast range: 6,000 to 36,000)

Friday
The market consensus shows that durable goods orders are expected to record a drop of 5 percent in December after surging 12.7 percent in November. Data are still skewed because of the September 11 disasters; we may need to wait a couple more months to get "back to normal". (Forecast range: -8.0 to -0.2 percent)

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is predicted to post a slight up tick to 83 in December, from November's level of 82.2. The Michigan survey showed a larger gain for the month, but the Conference Board's index is more geared towards labor market conditions. (Forecast range: 81 to 86)

Economists are expecting the Chicago purchasing managers' index (also known as the PMAC survey) to record an increase in December to a level of 45 percent, up 4 points from the November level. (Forecast range: 42.0 to 47.0)

Existing home sales are predicted to remain unchanged in November from October's 5.17 million-unit rate. Mortgage rates were starting to pick up during the month - and this continued into December as well. This could mean fewer home sales in the next couple of months. (Forecast range: 5.00 to 5.34 million-unit rate)

New home sales are predicted to increase 1.7 percent to an 895,000-unit rate for November. Higher mortgage rates could start to dampen new home sales in addition to existing home sales in the next couple of months. (Forecast range: 850,000 to 895,000)

Wednesday
The NAPM Survey has a new name; it is now called the ISM Index. Economists are predicting the ISM index to record a rise in December to 46.2 from a level of 44.5 in November. Remember that any level under 50 percent still signifies a drop in activity, but the magnitude of decline could be smaller. (Forecast range: 43.5 to 47)

Thursday
Construction spending for November is expected to inch up 0.4 percent after rising 1.9 percent in October. Both residential and nonresidential expenditures should rise more slowly than the previous month. (Forecast range: -2.0 to +5.0)

Friday
The market consensus is looking for nonfarm payroll employment to post a drop of 150,000 in December. Last month, payrolls declined 331,000. (Forecast range: -75,000 to -260,000) The civilian unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 5.8 percent from November's level of 5.7 percent. (Forecast range: 5.8 to 6.0 percent)

Average hourly earnings are predicted to rise 0.3 percent in December, matching last month's gain. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.5 percent) The private workweek should remain unchanged at 34.1. (Forecast range: 34 to 34.2)