Looking Ahead: Week of December 10 to December 14
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
The market consensus is looking for a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points, which would bring the federal funds rate target down to 1.75 percent. (Forecast range: unchanged to -25 basis points) At the same time, economists are predicting that the discount rate will be reduced by 50 basis points to 1.25 percent. (Forecast range: -25 to -50 basis points)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will remain unchanged at 475,000 in the week ended December 8. (Forecast range: -15,000 to +15,000)

The market consensus shows that retail sales are expected to decline 3.3 percent in November, reversing about half of last month's 7.1 percent surge. Despite the relatively strong pace of motor vehicle sales in November, they were still down from record October levels. (Forecast range: -4.0 to +1.4 percent) Excluding autos, economists are looking for a meager 0.1 percent rise in retail sales. (Forecast range: -0.3 to +0.5 percent)

The producer price index is expected to decline 0.4 percent in November after recording a whopping 1.6 percent drop in the previous month. Lower energy prices are still putting downward pressure on the index. (Forecast range: -0.7 to -0.1 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PPI is expected to remain unchanged in November. The nonfood, nonenergy PPI fell 0.5 percent in October.

Friday
The market consensus is looking for the consumer price index to inch down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.3 percent in October. This reflects good news on lower energy prices. (Forecast range: -0.3 to +0.1 percent) Excluding food and energy, the CPI is expected to rise 0.2 percent in November, the same pace as the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent)

Business inventories are predicted to decline 0.5 percent in October, a bit less than September's 0.5 percent drop. The inventory correction is well underway and suggests that production could pick up as soon as demand increases. (Forecast range: -2.0 to -0.2 percent)

The index of industrial production is expected to decline 0.6 percent in November, less than the sharp declines of the past several months. (Forecast range: -1.05 to +0.2 percent) The capacity utilization rate is predicted to edge down to 74.1 percent in November, from October's level of 74.8 percent. The two series typically move in tandem. (Forecast range: 73.6 to 74.8 percent)