Looking Ahead: Week of November 19 to November 23
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
The market consensus shows that housing starts are predicted to drop 3.4 percent in October to a 1.52 million-unit rate. This would more than reverse last month's 1.7 percent gain. Even in a recessionary environment, low mortgage rates are helping economic activity to remain relatively strong. (Forecast range: 1.45 to 1.54 million-unit rate)

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that the international trade deficit on goods and services should narrow to $25.6 billion in September from a $27.1 billion shortfall in August. A decline in demand for goods and services in the United States means that we are likely to purchase fewer imported goods. (Forecast range: $-26.5 to $-15 billion)

The Conference Board's index of leading indicators is predicted to remain unchanged in October. Although stock prices and money supply rose during the month, the factory workweek declined and new jobless claims were much higher than in September. (Forecast range: -0.2 to +0.2 percent)

Wednesday
The market consensus is looking for new jobless claims to increase 6,000 to 450,000 in the week ended November 20 from last week's level of 444,000. Jobless claims typically rise in the week following a week that includes a holiday. (Forecast range: +1,000 to +31,000)

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to increase to 83.5 in November from a level of 82.7 in October. The preliminary reading earlier in the month was the same. (Forecast range: 82 to 84 percent).

Economists are predicting the Treasury budget will record a deficit of $11 billion in October, the first month of fiscal year 2002. This would be similar to last year, and less than the deficit posted in 2000 for the same month. (Forecast range: $-2.0 to $-20.0 billion)