Looking Ahead: Week of November 12 to November 16
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Wednesday
The market consensus shows that retail sales are predicted to jump 2.5 percent in October, just about reversing the 2.4 percent drop posted in September. The bulk of this reversal will come from a spurt in auto sales. Don't be surprised with a larger gain - note that some forecasters are looking for an increase as large as 5.5 percent for the month! (Forecast range: 0.8 to 5.5 percent) Excluding the volatile auto sector, retail sales are expected to inch up 0.3 percent in October, not making much of a dent to last month's 1.8 percent drop. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 0.9 percent).

Thursday
The market consensus is looking for new jobless claims to increase 25,000 to 475,000 in the week ended November 14 from last week's level of 450,000. (Forecast range: -30,000 to +50,000)

Business inventories are expected to decline 0.3 percent in September after posting a 0.1 percent drop in August. A sharp inventory liquidation as we have seen in the past several months sets the stage for a boost in production when demand picks up. (Forecast range: -0.5 to -0.1 percent).

Economists are predicting the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey will run at -25 in November, not very different from the -27.4 level posted in October. This signals heavy declines in the manufacturing sector.

Friday
The consumer price index is expected to decline 0.2 percent in October due largely to declines in energy prices. (Forecast range: -0.5 to +0.1 percent) At the same time, the CPI excluding food and energy prices is predicted to increase 0.1 percent for the month helped by auto incentives. Typically, the declines seen in the PPI are muted by the time they show up in the CPI. Keep in mind that the CPI is mostly made up of services, which don't move as quickly as commodity prices. (Forecast range: -0.1 to +0.3 percent)

The market consensus shows that the index of industrial production is expected to drop 0.9 percent in October, nearly as steep as last month's 1 percent drop. Declines in factory payrolls along with a slower workweek points to this decline. (Forecast range: -1.3 to -0.5 percent) The capacity utilization rate should fall in tandem with production; economists predict a 74.8 percent level. (Forecast range: 74.3 to 75.6 percent)