Looking Ahead: Week of October 29 to November 2
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
The market consensus is looking for the Treasury budget surplus to amount to $30 billion in September, less than half the surplus posted for the same month last year. This would put the total fiscal year surplus at $122 billion in 2001, about the same as 1999, but less than the $237 surplus for fiscal year 2000. (Forecast range: $20 to $33 billion)

Tuesday
Economists expect that the Conference Board's consumer confidence index will decline modestly to 95 from a level of 97.6 in September. This would be a slight departure from the Michigan survey, which rose slightly in October from the September level. (Forecast range: 90 to 99).

Wednesday
The market consensus shows that real GDP is predicted to decrease 1.0 percent in the third quarter. This comes from a sharp fall off in demand and production in September, although underlying weakness was evident in July and August as well. (Forecast range: -0.4 to -2.5 percent) Economists are predicting that the GDP deflator will rise at a 1.6 percent rate in the third quarter, less than the 2.1 percent rate posted in the second quarter. (Forecast range: 1.0 to 1.9 percent).

The Chicago purchasing managers index (alias PMI or PMAC) is expected to drop back to 43 percent in October after rising to 46.6 percent in September. In both cases the level remains below the crucial 50 percent, which is required to signal an upturn in manufacturing activity. (Forecast range: 40 to 45 percent).

Thursday
The market consensus is looking for new jobless claims to decrease 4,000 to 500,000 in the week ended October 27 from last week's level of 504,000. (Forecast range: -9,000 to +21,000)

Personal income is expected to inch up 0.1 percent in September after remaining unchanged in August. While personal income growth is meager, we could still see some residual benefit from tax rebate checks going out in September. (Forecast range: -1.5 to +0.3 percent) Personal consumption expenditures are expected to post a 1 percent drop. This incorporates the weakness in durable and nondurable goods already seen in retail sales, but offset somewhat by gains in services, which tend to be more stable than goods. (Forecast range: -1.7 to -0.4 percent)

Economists are predicting that the NAPM survey will fall to 44 percent in October from a level of 47 percent in September. Expectations tend to shift after the Chicago purchasing managers index is reported, so make sure to see if the Chicago PMI comes in line with expectations. (Forecast range: 43.5 to 45.2)

Construction spending is predicted to decline 0.9 percent in September, about in line with the 1.1 percent drop posted in August. This reflects ongoing construction activity and tends to move in a more stable pattern over short time periods. (Forecast range: -0.1 to -1.5 percent)

Friday
Nonfarm payroll is expected to drop a sharp 300,000 in October as the impact of the September 11 attacks works with a month's delay. Last month, payrolls fell 199,000. Don't be surprised if the drop is more dramatic. Economists tend to underestimate payroll changes in unusual circumstances. (Forecast range: -185,000 to -400,000) At the same time, the civilian unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.2 percent in October from the 4.9 percent rate reported last month.

Economists are predicting that average hourly earnings will edge up 0.2 percent in October, the same as the previous month's gain. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.4 percent) The average private workweek is expected to inch down a few minutes to 34 from 34.1 in September. (Forecast range: 33 to 34.1)