Looking Ahead: Week of January 21 to January 26
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Monday
Economists are predicting that the index of leading indicators will decrease 0.3 percent in December after falling 0.2 percent in November. The continued deterioration in the leading indicators index confirms the contraction in the manufacturing sector and perhaps a slowdown in the overall economy as well. It is inconclusive whether the declines spell recession in the U.S. (Forecast range: -0.2 to 0.6 percent)

The consensus forecast for the federal budget is looking for a surplus of $33 billion in December. This would nearly offset the deficits of the past two months. Last year's surplus amounted to $33.1 billion for the same month. (Forecast range: $30 to 35 billion)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 44,000 in the week ended January 20 from last week's 306,000 level. (Forecast range: +19,000 to +54,000)

The consensus forecast is calling for the employment cost index to record a 1.1 percent gain in the three months ending December. This would be faster than the 0.9 percent rise posted in September. Wages and salaries have accelerated in the fourth quarter given by the average hourly earnings figures from the employment situation. (Forecast range: 0.9 to 1.4 percent)

Economists are predicting that existing home sales could drop 2.3 percent in December to a 5.10 million-unit rate. Mortgage rates have decreased in the past few months, but severe weather conditions probably curtailed home sales. (Forecast range: 4.75 to 5.20 million-unit rate)

Friday
New orders for durable goods are expected to drop 1.5 percent in December. This should be a reversal of last month's sharp rise in aircraft orders. Total durable goods rose 2.3 percent in November. (Forecast range: 0.4 to -2.5 percent)