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Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     9/21/01

Looking Ahead: Week of September 10 to September 14
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
Economists are predicting that consumer installment credit will expand $4.4 billion in July after contracting $1.5 billion in June. On the whole, retail sales have been anemic suggesting that consumer credit growth could moderate in coming months. (Forecast range: $-5.0 to $+8.0 billion)

Thursday
Initial jobless claims should remain nearly unchanged in the week ended September 8. Economists are predicting a level of 405,000 whereas last week's level was initially estimated at 402,000. (Forecast range: 395,000 to 410,000)

Friday
Economists are predicting that the producer price index should inch up 0.1 percent in August, after declining in the past couple of months. (Forecast range-0.2 to +0.5 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy component, the PPI is also expected to rise 0.1 percent, less than July, but in line with recent months. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.2 percent)

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3 percent in August, somewhat better than the previous two months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.4 percent) Excluding the auto group, retail sales are also expected to rise 0.3 percent in August, a bit higher than the 0.2 percent gain posted in July. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.6 percent)

The consensus forecast shows that the index of industrial production is expected to drop 0.4 percent in August, about in line with the average declines of the past few months. Sharp declines in factory payrolls as well as sluggish orders and a NAPM below 50 percent all point to the production drop. (Forecast range: -0.7 to +0.3 percent) At the same time, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline to 76.5 percent from a level of 77 percent in July.



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