Looking Ahead: Week of June 25 to June 29
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
The market consensus shows that existing home sales remain unchanged in May at a 5.20 million-unit rate. Last month, existing home sales fell 4.2 percent reversing the March gain. Home sales have weakened slightly, but just like housing starts, they remain in a tight range even as other sectors of the economy have weakened more dramatically. (Forecast range: 5.05 to 5.26 million-unit rate)

Tuesday
The market consensus shows that durable goods orders will remain unchanged in May after declining 5 percent in April. Boeing orders were up slightly and this could have a positive impact on aircraft orders. However, the underlying trend remains sluggish. (Forecast range: -2.5 to 1.5 percent)

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is predicted to edge down to 114.5 in June from May's level of 115.5. While investors may think that a slight dip in the confidence index is negative for the economy, a longer perspective (6 months), shows that consumer sentiment has not essentially altered. (Forecast range: 106.0 to 119.0)

Economists are expecting that new home sales will inch up 0.7 percent in May to a 900,000 unit rate. A rise in new home sales would appear in contrast to the existing home sales figures. However, new home sales fell 9.5 percent in April and this may be a partial offset to the previous month's figure. (Forecast range: 850,000 to 940,000 unit rate)

Wednesday
The June FOMC meeting lasts two days so that Fed officials can spend more time planning the monetary policy report that is sent to Congress in July. The meeting begins on Tuesday and will end on Wednesday when the Fed is expected to announce another rate cut. The market consensus appears to favor a 25 basis point cut this time. (Forecast range: -25 to -50 basis points)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 15,000 in the week ended June 23 from last week's 400,000 level. (Forecast range: unchanged to +40,000)

Friday
Economists are predicting that real GDP grew at a 1.3 percent rate in the first quarter, the same as reported last month. (Forecast range: 0.8 to 1.6 percent) Real final sales increased at a 4.4 percent rate during the January to March period and the GDP deflator rose at a 3.2 percent rate. The final revision on GDP tends to be minor.

The PMAC Survey is expected to edge up in June to 39.5 from a level of 38.7 percent. While an increase could be promising for the manufacturing sector, any level below 50 percent still means that the manufacturing sector is in a slump. Market players like to look at the Chicago survey because it tends to move in the same direction as the NAPM survey. (Forecast range: 38.5 to 40.0)