Looking Ahead: Week of June 18 to June 22
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
The market consensus shows that housing starts will post a drop of 0.6 percent in May to a 1.60 million-unit rate. Last month, starts had gained 1.5 percent and the projected level is within the recent range. (Forecast range: 1.57 to 1.62 million-unit rate) Housing permits are expected to decrease 0.8 percent in May to a 1.575 million-unit rate. Permits are considered a leading indicator of housing starts, but we've found that the two series most often move in tandem. (Forecast range: 1.56 to 1.59 million-unit rate)

Wednesday
Economists are predicting that the index of leading indicators increased 0.2 percent in May after inching up 0.1 percent in April. In the past 10 years, this series has done a better job of projecting activity in the manufacturing sector than the economy as a whole. Perhaps the two-month rise would be friendly news for industrial production down the road. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.4 percent).

The consensus shows a $30 billion deficit is projected for the May Treasury budget. Keep in mind that a huge surplus was realized in April when annual taxes were collected. The fiscal year budget surplus is still expected to exceed last year's pace of $236.9 billion. (Forecast range: $-31.0 to +5.0 billion)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 2,000 in the week ended June 16 from last week's 428,000 level. Some analysts are expecting new claims to increase in the next couple of weeks as a result of Tropical Storm Allison in Texas. (Forecast range: -13,000 to +7,000)

Economists are predicting that the international trade deficit will remain virtually unchanged at $31.0 billion in April from the March level of $31.2 billion. Exports could decline in April since Boeing had posted a decline in foreign aircraft orders for the month and the export order component of the NAPM survey was down as well. A sluggish economy in the U.S. depresses the demand for imports. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.3 percent)

The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is expected to decrease in June to -10 from a level of -8.8 in May. Any level below the zero mark means that activity is still declining. By the way, the Philly Fed announced that they are changing the time of this announcement from 10 AM to Noon (eastern time). (Forecast range: 0.0 to -15.0)