Looking Ahead: Week of May 29 to June 1, 2001
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Market participants are expecting personal income to rise 0.3 percent in April, less than the 0.5 percent gains posted in the two previous months. Typically, slower income growth points to slower spending. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.5 percent) In April, market players are looking for a 0.4 percent gain in personal consumption expenditures, larger than the gains of the two past months. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.5 percent). Slower income growth coupled with faster spending will point to deterioration in the personal savings rate.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to increase 2 points to 111.5 in May. This would follow the trend already reported in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. Despite the gain, consumer optimism is still weaker in the first half of 2001 than last year. (Forecast range: 110.0 to 114.0)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to decrease 2,000 in the week ended May 25 from last week's 407,000 level. (Forecast range: -12,000 to +3,000)

Economists are predicting the PMAC Survey will increase to 40 in May from a level of 38.9 in April. This level would still be anemic and suggest that manufacturing is in a slump. (Forecast range: 38.5 to 42.0)

Friday
The consensus forecast shows that nonfarm payrolls will decline 10,000 in May, not quite as ominous as the 223,000 drop recorded in April. The May figure tends to be slightly more difficult to forecast because it incorporates new seasonal adjustment factors. (Forecast range: -115,000 to +50,000) A good chunk of the weakness comes from manufacturing. Factory payrolls are predicted to decrease 50,000 in May. (Forecast range: -40,000 to -70,000)

The jobless rate is expected to inch up higher in May, rising to 4.6 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from April. (Forecast range: 4.5 to 4.6 percent)

Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 percent in May, less than the 0.4 percent average of the past two months. This would put the yearly gain at 4.4 percent, higher than the past few months and would be unfavorable news for the bond market. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.4 percent) The average workweek is expected to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours in May. (Forecast range: 34.2 to 34.4 hours)

The consensus forecast shows that the NAPM Survey is expected to expected to edge up modestly to 43.8 in May from a level of 43.2 in April. This keeps manufacturing in a slump. (Forecast range: 42.5 to 45.0) The price component of this survey is expected to edge up to 49 in May from 48.9 in April. Any level below 50 percent means a decline, so that keeps prices falling.

Economists are predicting that construction expenditures will edge up 0.2 percent in April after posting a stronger 1.3 percent gain in March. The residential sector is decreasing modestly, although nonresidential structures are posting gains. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 0.7 percent)