Looking Ahead: Week of May 7 to May 11, 2001
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
Consumer installment credit is expected to rise $10.0 billion in March, down from the pace of the past few months when consumer credit expanded $16 billion in January and $13 billion in February. Softer retail and auto sales generally lead to smaller gains in credit. (Forecast range: $7.0 to $12.8 billion)

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that nonfarm productivity increased at a 1.4 percent rate in the first quarter after posted a 2.2 percent rate of growth in the final quarter of 2000. This corresponds to the relatively modest pace of GDP growth (2.0%) for the quarter. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 2.0 percent) At the same time, the market consensus is showing a 4.8 percent spurt in unit labor costs. This would be a slight acceleration from the 4.3 percent pace recorded in the fourth quarter last year. This pattern of softer productivity with higher labor costs is typical for this stage of the business cycle. (Forecast range: 3.4 to 5.8 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to slip 1,000 in the week ended May 4 from last week's 421,000 level. (Forecast range: -41,000 to +4,000)

Import prices are expected to edge up 0.2 percent in April after dropping 1.6 percent in March. Last month's good news on energy prices will likely reverse somewhat. (Forecast range: -1.0 to +0.3 percent) Export prices are expected to remain unchanged in April. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.2 percent)

Friday
Economists are predicting that retail sales will edge up 0.2 percent in April after dipping 0.2 percent in March. Motor vehicle sales declined for the month, pushing down the total figure. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.5 percent) Excluding autos, retail sales should rise 0.4 percent in April. This would be better than the declines recorded in the past two months, but is still on the anemic side. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.7 percent)

The producer price index is predicted to rise 0.4 percent in April after a 0.1 percent decrease in March. Energy prices will boost the index. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.6 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy component, economists believe the PPI will edge up a modest 0.1 percent in April, the same as last month. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.2 percent)