Looking Ahead: Week of April 23 to April 27
Market News International compiles consensus forecasts by surveying Wall Street economists.

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that the Conference Board's consumer confidence index will post a drop of 4 percentage points in April to a level of 113. Despite the expected drop, this would keep the index above the February level of 109.2. Fed officials have closely monitored consumer confidence these past several months. Sharp declines in consumer and business confidence were cited as key factors behind the aggressive easing in January. (Forecast range: 110.00 to 118.0 percent)

Wednesday
Durable goods new orders are expected to rise up 1 percent in March after a modest 0.4 percent decline in February. Aircraft orders jumped in March, and this could boost the total gain for the month more than economists are willing to predict. The underlying demand for new orders of durable goods excluding aircraft remains soft. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 2 percent)

The market consensus shows that sales of existing homes could decline 1.5 percent in March to a 5.10 million-unit rate. Despite the expected decline, the overall pace of housing activity remains rather healthy because mortgage rates are down significantly from a year ago. (Forecast range: 5.00 to 5.20 million-unit rate)

Economists are predicting that new home sales will inch up 0.4 percent in March, after declining in the past couple of months. Just like existing home sales, new home sales have exhibited remarkable strength in this late stage of the expansion. Lower interest rates to entice new buyers into the market. (Forecast range: 888,000 to 940,000)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to rise 5,000 in the week ended April 21 from last week's 385,000 level. (Forecast range: -15,000 to 10,000)

Market players are expecting the employment cost index to rise 1.1 percent in the first quarter. The index posted smaller gains in the second half of 2000. To some extent, this reflects higher wage gains in the first quarter, but also an acceleration in benefits costs. (Forecast range: 0.8 to 1.3 percent)

Friday
Economists are predicting that the Commerce Department's advance estimate will reveal real GDP expanded at a 1.2 percent rate. This would not be very different from the 1 percent rate of growth posted in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, the U.S. economy benefits from a pick up in consumer spending as well as an improvement in net exports. (Forecast range: -0.2 to 2.1 percent) The consensus forecast is also looking for a 3 percent rate of growth in the GDP deflator. This would be somewhat higher than the fourth quarter pace of 2.5 percent.