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Fed cut stuns markets

By Evelina M. Tainer, Anne D. Picker and Damir Fonovich, Econoday
4/20/01




This past week could be divided into two parts - before 10:55 am EDT on Wednesday and after. That was when the Federal Reserve announced its latest inter-meeting 50 basis point interest rate cut, taking the federal funds rate to 4.5 percent and holding its easing bias. This opens the door for another rate cut at their next meeting. They truly caught the markets off guard, with few expecting a rate cut before their May 15 meeting. The FOMC did not act on any specific indicator (although they did have advance information on the weekly unemployment claims data that are usually released Thursday mornings). Rather the Fed gave a whole host of reasons, including weakness in investment and profits, souring business climate, fear that the stock market decline could hurt consumption and slowing overseas growth.


The stunning cut was the second to be made between FOMC meetings and the fourth 50 basis point cut this year. The equities markets rejoiced but the bond market fell into utter confusion as did the currency markets. Both had priced an inter-meeting move out of the market when the Fed didn't act after the weak employment and consumer confidence reports. Things are still being sorted out there. The equities markets, which were showing signs of stabilizing prior to the move, took off - and what was even better they kept on climbing the day after. On Friday, the temptation to take profits combined with double witching eroded the week's gains.

Oh yes, as for the economic indicators this week, there was good news and so-so news. Three key economic indicators were reported early in the week. Industrial production unexpectedly rose while the consumer price index remained benign - both good news. The merchandise trade deficit fell markedly - also good. But the improvement came on weak import demand by both consumers and industry. This implies generally weak U.S. domestic demand. Potentially this can have negative repercussions throughout the world especially in those countries dependent upon exports to the United States.

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