Looking Ahead: Week of March 26 to March 30
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Monday
Economists are predicting that existing single-family home sales fell 1.9 percent rate in February after rising 3.8 percent in January. The housing market has remained healthy these past several months as mortgage rates have declined and helped lower monthly mortgage payments. The declines in consumer confidence would suggest reduced activity in the housing market going forward. (Forecast range: 4.95 to 5.20 million-unit rate)

The market consensus is looking for a decline of 1.2 percent in new single-family home sales for February to a 910,000-unit rate. This would follow a 10.9 percent drop in the previous month. Declining mortgage rates propped up the housing market in spite of a decline in consumer confidence. Mortgage rates have stabilized in the past few weeks, though, and this could prevent further gains in home sales in the next few months. (Forecast range: 895,000 to 940,000)

Tuesday
The consensus forecast is showing that durable goods orders edged up 0.2 percent in February, after plunging 6.5 percent in January. This reflects no change in the volatile aircraft component and a slight up tick in core durable goods orders (excluding transportation). The sluggish pace of durable goods orders suggests further weakness in production in coming months as well. (Forecast range: +2.0 percent to - 6.0 percent)

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to drop to 104.0 in March from a level of 106.8 in February. If realized, this would be a modest decline after the sharp decreases of the past few months. A reduction in consumer confidence is generally associated with declines in retail sales, although these two series don't necessarily move in tandem each month. Fed officials are concerned with the level of consumer and business confidence. A sharper-than-expected drop may cause them (the Fed) to ease credit conditions sooner rather than later. (Forecast range: 100 to 110)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 1,000 in the week ended March 24 from last week's 379,000 level. (Forecast range: -3219,000 to +6,000)

Economists are predicting that the Commerce Department will leave unchanged its estimate that real GDP grew at a 1.1 percent rate in the fourth quarter. Similarly, they expect the final sales growth rate to remain unchanged at 1.5 percent and the GDP deflator to remain at 1.9 percent. It is unusual to see large revisions in the growth rate three months after the end of the quarter. Typically, changes may occur within various components, but these won't affect the total growth rate in GDP. (Forecast range for GDP: 0.9 to 1.1 percent) Corporate profits for the fourth quarter will be available with this report.

Friday
Personal income is expected to rise 0.3 percent in February, after rising twice as fast in the previous month. This reflects the slower pace of employment growth during the month. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.5 percent) Personal consumption expenditures are expected to also rise 0.3 percent for the month. This also would be less than last month's 0.7 percent gain and incorporates the retail sales figures reported earlier in the month. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.6 percent)

Economists are predicting that the Chicago purchasing managers index will rise to 44.0 in March from a level of 43.2 in February. Any level below 50 percent still reflects a contracting manufacturing sector. (Forecast range: 42.0 to 45.0)