Looking Ahead: Week of March 19 to March 23
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that the international trade deficit for goods and services remained unchanged in January from December's $33.0 billion deficit. Both imports and exports have declined in the past few months; these declines are expected to continue. (Forecast range: $-31.5 to $-35 billion)

The Federal Open Market Committee will reveal their decision at 2:15 PM eastern time. The market consensus calls for a 50 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate. Many bond investors are hoping (really expecting) a 75 basis point cut. If the Fed doesn't reduce rates by more than 50 basis points, it is likely that market players will be disappointed. Disappointment translates into higher bond yields and lower stock prices.

The U.S. Treasury is predicted to report that the federal budget deficit amounted to $45 billion in February. This would be slightly larger than the $-41.7 billion deficit posted last year during this month. Nevertheless, the year-to-date surplus remains higher than a year ago. (Forecast range: $-40 to $-46 billion)

Wednesday
The consensus forecast is showing that the consumer price index increased 0.2 percent in February. This would be an improvement from the 0.6 percent spurt in January's CPI. Lower energy prices should help dampen the total price index. (Forecast range: 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to also rise 0.2 percent in February. If this forecast were realized, it also would be less than the January hike (0.3 percent). (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.3 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to remain unchanged in the week ended March 17 from last week's 375,000 level. (Forecast range: -10,000 to +10,000)

Economists are predicting that the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.2 percent in February. If this forecast were realized, it would reverse more than one-third of the January gain. Reversals in the average factory workweek and building permits, declining consumer confidence and new orders, and a higher level of jobless claims should offset a positive contribution from the money supply. (Forecast range: -0.4 to 0.2 percent)