Looking Ahead: Week of March 5 to March 9
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that nonfarm productivity grew at a 2 percent rate in the fourth quarter, a downward revision from the 2.4 percent rate reported last month. The downward revision in productivity is in line with the downward revision in real GDP growth last week. (Forecast range: 1.9 to 2.5 percent) At the same time, economists expect unit labor costs to be revised slightly higher to a 4.4 percent rate (from a 4.1 percent rate). The productivity figures are weaker than we've seen in the past several years, but are still pretty good for this mature phase of the business cycle. (Forecast range: 4.2 to 4.5 percent)

The consensus forecast is showing that factory orders fell 3.4 percent in January, reversing the November and December gains. Factory orders are nearly always overwhelmed by changes in aircraft orders, and these plunged in January. (Forecast range: -1.9 percent to - 4.5 percent)

Wednesday
Economists are predicting that consumer installment credit expanded by $7 billion in January after increasing only $3 billion in December. The increase is at least partly due to a spurt in motor vehicle sales from the previous month. (Forecast range: $4.0 to $10 billion)

Market players will scrutinize the anecdotal evidence coming from the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday. They will hope to see slower wage and price increases along with moderation in retail sales and housing. A weaker economy means a more aggressive ease on the part of the Federal Reserve; at least that's what bond and equity investors believe.

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to decrease 12,000 in the week ended March 3 from last week's 372,000 level. (Forecast range: -32,000 to +3,000)

Friday
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to edge up 60,000 in February, after gaining 268,000 in January. A good chunk of the January gain was attributable to special (weather) factors. Some of these could be reversed in February. (Forecast range: -10,000 to 120,000) The February forecast incorporates a 25,000 reduction in factory payrolls. (Forecast range: -10,000 to -50,000) The jobless rate is expected to inch up to 4.3 percent from January's 4.2 percent pace. By historical standards, the rate remains low, but we haven't seen this rate in nearly two years. (Forecast range: 4.2 to 4.4 percent)

Economists are predicting that average hourly earnings will rise 0.3 percent in February, after remaining unchanged in January. But this is in line with the average monthly gain of the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.5 percent) The average workweek is expected to remain unchanged at 34.3. (Forecast range: 34.0 to 34.3)