Looking Ahead: Week of February 26 to March 2
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Monday
Existing home sales are expected to rise 2.0 percent in January to a 5.0 million unit rate. This would be a modest reversal from the 7.4 percent drop posted in December. In any case, the overall level of home sales remains relatively healthy in this mature phase of the business cycle, spurred by low mortgage rates. (Forecast range: 4.8 to 5.2 million unit rate)

Tuesday
The consensus forecast is showing that durable goods orders fell 3.0 percent in January, reversing the December gain. Durable goods orders are nearly always overwhelmed by changes in aircraft orders, and these decreased in January. (Forecast range: 0.5 percent to 5.0 percent)

New home sales are expected to decline 7.5 percent in January to a 900,000 unit rate. If this forecast is realized, the drop would reverse only about half of the previous month's gain. But just like existing home sales, new home sales have been robust despite the fact that manufacturing activity is in the dumps and consumer confidence is down. (Forecast range: 890,000 to 980,000)

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to decrease to 110.0 in February, from January's level of 114.4. In May 2000, this measure peaked at 144.7. How quickly it has declined in less than a year. (Forecast range: 106.0 to 116.0)

Wednesday
Economists are predicting that the Commerce Department will lower its estimate of fourth quarter real GDP to a 1.0 percent rate from the advance estimate of 1.4 percent. (Forecast range: 0.6 percent to 1.5 percent) This reflects much lower inventory growth since economists are generally looking for real final sales to remain virtually unchanged at 1.6 percent. (Forecast range: 1.2 percent to 1.9 percent) The GDP deflator also isn't expected to change from the initial estimate of 2.1 percent.

The consensus estimate for the Chicago purchasing manager's index shows a slight uptick to 41.5 in February from January's level of 40.2. This still reflects a declining manufacturing sector and is hardly an improvement. (Forecast range: 39.5 to 43.0)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 2,000 in the week ended February 24 from last week's 348,000 level. (Forecast range: -3,000 to +10,000)

Economists are predicting that personal income will rise 0.5 percent in January, not very different from December's 0.4 percent gain. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.7 percent) Personal consumption expenditures are expected to post a 0.7 percent gain, just about two times as strong as last month. This incorporates the stronger growth in retail spending and some pickup in services - mostly price related. (Electricity is a component of the service sector, and prices have been climbing there.) (Forecast range: 0.4 to 1.2 percent)

The NAPM survey is expected to increase slightly in February to 42, up nearly a percentage point from January's level of 41.2 percent. Either level tells the same story in the manufacturing sector - it is in recession. (Forecast range: 40.0 to 43.1)

Construction expenditures are expected to edge up 0.5 percent in January, nearly matching the December gain. The residential sector is either flat or down slightly, but nonresidential construction expenditures have posted healthy gains in the past twelve months. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 1.2 percent)