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The Bottom Line

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, December 17, 2001

As we go into the last weeks of the year, market activity will be affected by year-end position squaring and light trading as market players look to the holiday season for a respite from the travails of 2001. Investors should be aware of wider than usual price swings from the light trading conditions especially in the equities and foreign exchange markets.

It is high forecast season as analysts try to assess next year's growth prospects. One thing is certain: Forecasts are being revised down - not up. The weakness in Europe has surprised most analysts and officials alike. The smugness exhibited by ECB officials who thought that the EMU was large enough to be insulated from economic problems elsewhere is pretty much gone. The separation between the monetary policy of the ECB and fiscal policies of 12 member countries make it difficult to coordinate any sort of policy response. Fiscal policy is particularly limited by the stability pact, which sets a limit on government deficits to a percentage of GDP. Analysts continue to expect the United States - because of its proactive policies - to recover first.

Starter packs of euros were available to the citizens of the Netherlands, Ireland and France and were sold out quickly. Some found the currency unattractive looking when compared with their legacy currencies.

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Introduction   •   Global Stock Market Indexes   •   Recap of Global Markets   •   Currencies   •  Indicator Scoreboard

The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead
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