It is difficult to tell when the real bottom of an economic downturn occurs except in hindsight. For now, investors can expect economic data to give conflicting indications. Employment, for example, is a lagging indicator. It turns down after a slowdown begins and picks up after employers are sure that they really need more workers. Equities markets typically are forward looking. It is apparent that they have decided that a recovery in the United States is on the horizon and should occur somewhere around the second quarter of 2002. However, the picture has been muddied by reactions to the September 11 events. Has the economy rebounded to where it was prior to September 11? More care than usual will have to be taken in interpreting data in the months following September's events. These distortions only make it more difficult to figure out what really is happening.

Introduction   •   Global Stock Market Indexes   •   Recap of Global Markets   •   Currencies   •  Indicator Scoreboard

The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead