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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, October 15, 2001

Indicator scoreboard
EMU - Second quarter gross domestic product rose 0.1 percent and 1.7 percent when compared with last year. Revisions of the major components largely cancelled each other out. Private consumption was revised down to an increase of 0.4 percent from the earlier estimate of 0.6 percent. Gross fixed capital formation was revised up to a decline of 0.4 percent from the original decline of 0.8 percent.

Germany - September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Unemployment rose to 17.6 percent in east Germany and to 7.5 percent in the west. The number of unemployed rose by 20,000 due to the weaker economy and to the earlier than usual end to the summer holidays, which spread the normal autumn unemployment decline more evenly between September and August.

August seasonally adjusted industrial production rose 2.0 percent but fell 1.3 percent when compared with last year. West German industrial production rose 1.7 percent while east German industrial production jumped 4.7 percent. The data may be distorted by a larger than usual number of holidays in July which gave a boost to August. For July and August combined, industrial production was down 0.4 percent compared to the previous two months period.

August seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus was E10.0 billion on a nominal basis, up from an E7.4 billion surplus in July and an E4.1 billion surplus in August 2000. Exports adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price differences rose 4.1 percent and 9.8 percent on the year. Imports were down 0.9 percent and 1.9 percent on the year.

August real retail sales (excluding auto dealerships, petrol stations and wholesale warehouses) rose 0.4 percent when compared with last year. However, July real retail sales were revised down to an increase of 0.3 percent from the 0.9 percent gain originally reported. Total seasonally adjusted real retail sales including auto and petrol station sales rose 0.3 percent on the year. Seasonally and calendar adjusted real retail sales rose 1.8 percent on the month after dropping in each of the three preceding months.

France - Second quarter employment rose 0.3 percent and 3.1 percent when compared with last year. Most of the gains came in the services sector with 38,000 net new jobs. Construction contributed 8,100 new jobs while industry lost 2,600.

Second quarter final seasonally and workday adjusted gross national product rose 0.3 percent. Weaker household spending and investment dragged down growth. Second quarter private consumption rose an unrevised 0.3 percent while fixed-capital investment declined 0.2 percent, revised down from flat, due mainly to weaker business investment. Exports plunged 1.3 percent while imports dropped 1.0 percent.

Italy - July EU merchandise trade surplus shrank to L1.655 trillion from L3.1 trillion in July 2000. July EU exports rose 3.2 percent on the year and imports rose 10.2 percent. The global trade surplus was L4.497 trillion with imports rising 8.5 percent and exports up 4.2 percent when compared with last year.

Britain - September non-seasonally adjusted output prices rose 0.1 percent but fell 0.2 percent when compared with a year earlier. This was the lowest annual rate of increase since records began in 1958. Seasonally adjusted core output prices (excluding food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum) remained unchanged both on the month and on the year. Seasonally adjusted input prices declined 1.0 percent and were down 6.2 percent when compared with last year. The latest annual drop in input prices was mostly attributable to crude oil.

August industrial production rose 1 percent but was down 2.4 percent when compared with last year. Manufacturing, which accounts for about one-fifth of the economy, has contracted in four of the last eight months, weighing on economic growth. A surge in car and car parts production coupled with rising investment in telecommunications networks lifted production. Motor vehicle production rose by 11 percent while manufacture of car parts increased by 9.2 percent.

Asia
Japan - August seasonally adjusted machinery orders excluding shipbuilders and power utilities rose 8.7 percent after four months of decline, ending the longest drop in nine years. Orders for electrical machinery surged 26.2 percent while telecommunications related equipment rose only 0.1 percent after plummeting 14.6 percent in July. Orders for automobiles dropped 6.2 percent after jumping 32.7 percent in the previous month.

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