Indicator scoreboard
EMU - May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent. Unemployment rates in the last twelve months have fallen in the Netherlands from 3.1 percent to 2.3 percent, Sweden from 6.0 percent to 5.0 percent, Ireland from 4.3 percent to 3.8 percent, and France from 9.6 percent to 8.5 percent.

June seasonally adjusted Reuters PMI services activity index rose to 52.9 -- the first increase since April 2000. The input price index was stable at 51.9 while prices charged decelerated to 52.3 from 52.5 the month before. The rise in the services activity index was largely due to an improvement in new business. But business expectations fell to 63.8 from 64.3 in May. The seasonally adjusted Reuters composite index for manufacturing and services output - combining data from the services survey and the Reuters euro-zone purchasing managers' index - rose to 51.3 from 51.1 in May. An index reading above 50 signals that activity is expanding, a reading below 50 that it is contracting. The higher the reading above 50, the stronger the growth.

April retail trade volume rose 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent when compared with a year earlier. The food, drinks, and tobacco component rose 1.7 percent on the year; textiles, clothing and footwear rose by 1.2 percent; household goods inched up 0.1 percent. Many analysts are reluctant to forecast eurozone retail sales, given the high volatility in the series and the various methodologies used in different countries to calculate the data.

May producer prices rose 0.2 percent and 3.6 percent when compared with last year. The increase was paced by intermediate goods prices, including energy, which were up 0.4 percent.

EU - June economic sentiment index fell to 101.1. This was the sixth month in a row that the index has declined, hitting its lowest level since December 1997. Although both industrial and consumer sentiment fell, the latest drop in the overall sentiment index was due to weaker industry confidence, much weaker confidence in construction, and to a further drop in the share price index. Consumer sentiment deteriorated only slightly. Industrial confidence and consumer confidence each account for one-third of the weighting in the total economic sentiment index. Share prices and construction industry sentiment each count for one-sixth.

Germany - April seasonally adjusted industrial production data was revised down to a drop of 1.4 percent from a decline of 0.9 percent. Manufacturing output was revised down to a drop of 2.2 percent as intermediate goods were revised down to a drop of 2.3 percent, capital goods to a drop of 3.5 percent, durable goods output to a drop of 3.1 percent and consumer goods to an increase of 1.2 percent. In west Germany, output fell a revised 1.5 percent on the month while in the east, output was revised down to a drop of 0.9 percent.

June unemployment rate remained at 9.3 percent even though the rates for both east and west Germany rose. The west German unemployment rate rose to 7.4 percent from 7.3 percent in May while in east Germany, the unemployment rate rose to 17.5 percent from 17.4 percent in May. Seasonally adjusted pan-German unemployment rose 22,000. This was the sixth month in a row that the number of unemployed has risen. Seasonally adjusted job vacancies also fell again by 4,000, the sixth decrease in a row, following an upwardly revised decline of 15,000 in May.

May pan German manufacturing orders jumped 4.4 percent for the first increase this year. Orders rose 4.8 percent in west Germany and 1 percent in east Germany. Above average number of large (bulk) orders for manufactured goods, particularly from abroad, boosted orders. This increase was due mainly to higher foreign demand for capital goods, which jumped 16.0 percent. Both foreign and domestic orders were up in May. But while foreign orders jumped by 9.0 percent, domestic orders rose only 1.0 percent. A major portion of the unexpected rise in manufacturing orders was the result of a single large order for trains and railroad infrastructure equipment placed by a British company. These data are notoriously volatile and subject to large revisions.

France - First quarter seasonally and workday adjusted gross domestic product growth was unrevised at 0.5 percent after a 0.8 percent jump in the fourth quarter. Private consumption growth was revised down to 1.2 percent from 1.3 percent. Fixed capital investment was revised up to 0.9 percent from 0.7 percent, as sharp upward revisions in business and household investment offset a downward revision for public investment.

Britain - June Nationwide house prices index rose 1.9 percent and was up 9.3 percent from a year earlier. House prices rose by 3.0 percent in the second quarter and 7.9 percent when compared with the second quarter of 2000.

June Halifax house price index rose 1.6 percent and 9.7 percent on the year. The report said the annual rate of growth was the highest since May 2000 and although prices are expected to continue rising over the remainder of 2001, they will do so at a slower pace.

May seasonally adjusted industrial production sank 0.9 percent and was down 1.9 percent when compared with last year. Manufacturing, which accounts for 80 percent of industrial production, was also down 0.9 percent but fell 1.6 percent when compared with last year. A large chunk of the decline in manufacturing output was due to a significant decrease in optical equipment and electrical industries output.

Asia
Japan - Second quarter Tankan survey index of large manufacturers' confidence fell to minus 16 in June from minus 5 in March, the worst reading since December 1999. Companies expect profits to fall this year as export growth stalls. Large manufacturers said profits would decline 0.3 percent in the fiscal year started April 1, down from a 32 percent increase last fiscal year. The Tankan is considered the best gauge of business confidence in Japan. The Bank of Japan canvasses about 9,000 companies, large and small, from chipmakers to restaurants for their view on current and future conditions and earnings prospects. A negative index reading shows that the proportion of pessimistic respondents outnumbers optimistic ones about the economy. Confidence at small manufacturers fell to minus 37 from minus 27. The index for small non-manufacturers fell to minus 31 from minus 28. Capital spending by large manufacturers will rise 7.7 percent in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2002, down from an 8.3 percent increase last fiscal year. Makers of personal computers, cell phones and other electrical machinery were the hardest hit. The confidence index tracking that industry fell 26 points to minus 35. Demand for those goods had been the main engine of growth the past year. Overall, large companies say business investment will fall 1.3 percent in the year ending March 31, 2002. Last fiscal year, large companies' capital spending rose 1.5 percent.

Americas
Canada - June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 7.0 percent for the fourth consecutive month, and employment remained virtually unchanged. In the first half of 2001, employment growth was 0.2 percent, much slower than the 1.2 percent pace recorded in the last six months of 2000. The average number of hours worked per week held steady at 33.9, down from 34.5 at the start of the year. Employment in construction edged up 8,000 and was up 10,000 in professional, scientific and technical services. This helped offset the decline in manufacturing, which edged down 11,000, continuing a downward trend that began at the start of 2001.

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