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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, July 2, 2001

Indicator scoreboard
EMU - May M3 money supply growth rate accelerated to 5.4 percent when compared with last year. The data are adjusted for non-eurozone resident holdings of money market shares/units but not for non-eurozone resident holdings of money market paper and securities with a maturity of less than two years. The three month moving average jumped 4.9 percent when compared with the same three months last year. Adjusted for all distortions, the three month growth rate would still be below the ECB's 4.5 percent growth reference rate of 4.5 percent at 4.4 percent.

April current account deficit was E3.3 billion compared to a deficit of E7.0 billion last year. The merchandise goods trade surplus, a shift in the services account from deficit to surplus, as well as a smaller deficit in current transfers all contributed to the improved current account balance.

Germany - May seasonally adjusted producer prices rose 0.1 percent and 4.6 percent when compared with last year. May non-seasonally adjusted producer prices were up 0.2 percent and 4.6 percent on the year. Manufacturing products prices rose 0.2 percent and 2.3 percent when compared with last year. Excluding oil products, prices for manufacturing products rose 0.1 percent and 1.9 percent on the year.

June preliminary seasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.2 percent and 3.1 percent from June 2000. The deceleration in German CPI in June was due mainly to lower gasoline prices. This decline partly offset higher prices for heating oil, food and vacation costs on the month.

May seasonally adjusted import prices rose 1.1 percent and 4 percent when compared with last year. The May increase was caused mostly by an increase in energy and basic goods prices, related in part to the weakness of the euro. Import prices excluding oil products rose 0.2 percent and 3.4 percent when compared with last year. Seasonally adjusted export prices rose 0.3 percent and 1.6 percent on the year.

France - May seasonally adjusted number of unemployed persons rose 1.2 percent, leaving the International Labor Organization unemployment rate unchanged at 8.7 percent. The ILO definition excludes job seekers who did any work during the month. When compared to May 2000 (when the ILO unemployment rate stood at 9.6 percent) the number of unemployed people was down 202,000 people or 8.0 percent.

May producer price index rose 0.5 percent and 2.8 percent when compared with last year. The PPI was boosted by higher energy and agriculture prices. Industry energy prices rose 2.2 percent and 4.0 percent on the year. Fuel and gasoline prices surged 3.9 percent, while other utility costs rose 0.8 percent. Excluding energy and food, the core PPI was flat on the month, and up 1.8 percent on the year.

Italy - April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 9.6 percent from a revised 9.8 percent in January (originally reported at 9.9 percent), to post its lowest level since January 1993. Employment surveys are carried out every three months (January, April, July and October). In 2000 the average unemployment rate stood at 10.6 percent. The drop in unemployment was because fewer people looked for work, not because the number of jobs increased.

April unadjusted retail sales rose 2.2 percent when compared with last year. Retail sales data is measured in nominal value terms and not adjusted for changes in consumer prices

Britain - First quarter current account deficit shrank to Stg180 million from an unrevised fourth quarter Stg3.696 billion. This was the lowest recorded deficit for two years. The current account deficit narrowed as the surplus on investment income rose sharply and there was a smaller deficit on current transfers.

The final revision to first quarter gross domestic product was revised up to 0.5 percent from a previously estimated 0.4 percent. When compared with last year, GDP growth was revised up to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent. Construction output was revised sharply higher to a 1.7 percent increase from the original estimate of a 0.5 percent drop. Service industry output was also revised slightly higher to show a quarterly gain of 0.9 percent and a 3.7 percent jump on levels a year earlier.

Asia
Japan
- May department and supermarket store sales fell 0.4 percent when compared with last year. Sales at supermarkets fell 4.9 percent from a year ago. Supermarket sales have been falling for two and a half years.

May overall retail sales fell 1.6 percent when compared with last year. This was the second straight month of sliding sales. Consumer cutbacks on purchases of key household appliances have also dented retail sales. The decline is a minor backlash from the first three months of the year when consumers bought new refrigerators and televisions in large volume to replace old ones before the introduction of a new law requiring consumers to pay to recycle old appliances. Sales at Japan's large scale retailers fell 3.2 percent on the year after adjustment for the change in the number of stores, marking the 37th straight month of decline.

May industrial production fell 1.2 percent, the third straight decline and led by a drop in autos and mobile phones, sending production to its lowest level in two years. Shipments were unchanged last month. Inventories climbed 0.8 percent to the highest level since November 1998, when Japan was last in recession. Makers of equipment used to manufacture chips and cell phones, both of which pared production 11 percent, led the decline last month. Auto production dropped 7 percent, while inventories rose 5.1 percent.

June Tokyo consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent. May national prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent, the third straight decline. Including fresh food, June Tokyo seasonally adjusted consumer prices slid 0.2 percent. From a year ago, prices fell 0.6 percent, the 22nd straight decline. The price drop may be statistically skewed by a planned revision in August to a basket of goods included in the consumer price index. A greater weighting is expected to be given to clothes and computers, prices of which have been falling more than other goods.

Americas
Canada
-May Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) rose 0.3 percent and 2.7 percent when compared with last year. Higher prices for lumber and petroleum and coal products were partly offset by lower prices for paper and paper products, motor vehicles and chemicals and chemical products. Excluding petroleum and coal product prices, the IPPI rose 2.2 percent when compared with last year.

May Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) rose 0.6 percent and 2 percent when compared with last year. If mineral fuels were excluded, the RMPI would have fallen 0.3 percent on the month and risen 1.4 percent when compared with last year.

April gross domestic product at factor cost was unchanged after edging up 0.1 percent in March. When compared with last year, GDP at factor cost rose 2.2 percent. A surge in oil and gas exploration activity provided the single largest push to the economy. However, strike action led to a drop in public sector services. Manufacturing output declined slightly, as the continuing erosion of telecommunications equipment demand negated the recent upswing in the automotive sector. Strong sales of automobiles lifted the retailing industry.

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