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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Friday, April 13, 2001

Indicator scoreboard
EMU - Fourth quarter hourly wage costs rose 3.5 percent when compared with last year. Third quarter hourly wage costs were revised down to 3.8 percent from the 3.9 percent initially reported. Available data shows that total hourly wages posted the strongest gains in France (5.0 percent) followed by Finland and Spain (both 4.0 percent), the Netherlands (3.5 percent) and Germany (3.3 percent). The lowest annual rate was recorded in Italy (1.0 percent).

Germany - March final unadjusted harmonized index of consumer prices was revised up to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent and to 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent when compared with last year. Price increases came from higher prices for meat, fruits, gas and heating. March pan-German seasonally adjusted rate of inflation over the past six month remained unrevised at 2.6 percent, down from an increase of 3.6 percent in February. March pan-German seasonally adjusted final consumer prices also remained unrevised, up 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent above March 2000.

February seasonally adjusted industrial production rose 0.6 percent after an increase of 1.5 percent in January. The increase in overall output was chiefly due to a 10.1 percent surge in construction activity, a sharp swing from the 8.3 percent drop in January. The strong jump, which was presumably the result of favorable weather conditions in February, may have exaggerated the overall level of output. Industrial production rose 0.7 percent in west Germany and 0.8 percent in the east. Manufacturing output, however, which accounts for about 80 percent of German economic activity, fell by 0.2 percent.

February unadjusted merchandise trade surplus was DM12.2 billion. Exports jumped 11.8 percent when compared with last year while imports grew an even faster 15.6 percent. Exports to EMU countries rose 12.4 percent and imports rose 21.8 percent. The February seasonally adjusted trade surplus stood at E5.6 billion on a nominal basis, down from a E6.6 billion surplus in January and down from E6.2 billion surplus in February 2000. Seasonally adjusted exports were down 1.1 percent on the month and up 16.1 percent on the year. Imports were up 0.6 percent on the month and up 19.8 percent on the year.

February real retail sales (excluding auto dealerships, petrol stations and wholesale warehouses) declined 6.7 percent when compared with last year. But February this year had one less shopping day than February 2000. Clothing and furniture sales were particularly weak. The market was looking with interest to this release as many expected February data to provide some indication whether income tax cuts, greater costs from higher indirect taxes, or increased oil and import prices are dominating consumer demand. Real seasonally adjusted real retail sales including autos and gasoline sank 3.3 percent when compared with last year. Excluding autos and gasoline, seasonally adjusted sales fell 3.5 percent.

France - March preliminary seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.3 percent and 1.4 percent when compared with last year. Higher clothing prices in March, following discounts in January and February, along with rising food prices outweighed the lower energy prices. Seasonally adjusted monthly core inflation rate, which excludes administered prices and volatile sectors like food and energy, rose 0.1 percent and 1.6 percent when compared with last year. The EU harmonized inflation rate rose 0.5 percent and 1.4 percent when compared with last year.

Britain - March producer output prices were unchanged on the month and were up 0.8 percent on the year (down from 1.4 percent in February). The annual rate was the lowest since March 1999. Seasonally adjusted core output price inflation, which excludes food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, was unchanged on the month and up 0.4 percent on the year.

March seasonally adjusted input prices fell 0.9 percent but were up 3.7 percent when compared with last year. This was the lowest annual rate since July 1999.The fall in input prices mainly reflected a drop in crude oil prices. March crude oil prices fell by 8.2 percent and by 0.4 percent on the year.

Average earnings rose 5.0 percent in the three months to February, compared with a rate of 4.5 percent in the three months to January. In February alone, earnings were up 5.9 percent when compared with last year, much higher than the 4.3 percent increase in January. Big bonuses paid by financial service companies were blamed for the jump.

March claimant unemployment rate remained at 3.3 percent, even though the number of unemployed fell 5,500. Unemployment on the International Labor Organization measure in the three months to February fell 42,000. This rate dropped to 5.2 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous three months and down 0.6 percentage points from a year earlier.

Asia
Japan - February seasonally adjusted private machinery orders, excluding shipbuilders and power utilities, rose 5 percent. Orders rose 5.9 percent when compared with last year. Machinery orders point to capital spending in about six months' time. February machinery orders by manufacturers fell 0.9 percent, led by the nation's biggest industries - transportation, electrical and industrial machine makers. That was offset by an 18 percent rise in orders from non-manufacturers, as electric power and transportation companies ordered more equipment.

Australia - March seasonally adjusted employment fell by 8,500 jobs for the first time in four months. However, the jobless rate fell to 6.8 percent from 6.9 percent in February because more people gave up looking for work. The participation rate slipped to 63.5 percent from 63.7 percent in February.

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