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The Bottom Line

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, April 2, 2001

Investors are disappointed over the ECB's decision to leave rates unchanged after the US Federal Reserve has slashed rates three times. Market players continue to worry that the ECB is falling behind the economic growth curve. A number of key economic indicators will be released this week that could give the Bank more input for their decision making process despite their myopic focus on inflation.

Analysts are expecting that the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which both meet this week, to cut rates by at least 25 basis points. In Australia, fourth quarter growth slipped under 4 percent for the first time in 14 quarters and the Australian dollar has dropped to record lows.

The Bank of England may reduce its benchmark lending rate 25 basis points this week to 5.5 percent as evidence gathers that the economy won't be able to avoid the effects of the U.S. slowdown. Inflation remains significantly below the Bank's 2.5 percent target, giving ample room to lower rates.

The extremely important quarterly Tankan survey will be released by the Bank of Japan on Monday. This survey will provide important insight into the economic outlook for fiscal 2001. Information contained in the survey covers issues relating to corporate profits, finance and capital spending plans and gives a picture of business sentiment for the upcoming quarter and year. In fact, many analysts think the survey gives the most accurate picture of the Japanese economy.

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