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The Bottom Line

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, February 26, 2001

Market participants continue to debate the impact of the U.S. slowdown on overseas economies. After the higher than expected inflation numbers on both the producer and consumer side, murmurings of stagflation -- low growth plus inflation -- have surfaced. Investors need to remember that one month's readings do not make a trend. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will be testifying before congressional committees on Wednesday and Friday, with analysts at the ready to parse and interpret every word and inflection. In addition there will be a plethora of U.S. economic data available on which investors will be able to judge the U.S. economy's progress.

European officials continue to talk of inflation and strong growth seemingly implying that there is no chance that the European Central Bank will lower rates. But investors are not so sanguine. Market participants are worried that growth may slow and feel the ECB should act preemptively with a rate cut or at least hint that a rate cut may be in the pipeline. While officials acknowledge that curtailed global growth could cause some further slowdown in Europe, they aver that the outlook for EMU growth remains positive, thanks to relatively strong domestic growth.

In Japan, all eyes will be on the Nikkei, which has been teetering near the critical 13,000 level. Some analysts are fearful that the Nikkei's weakness may continue into the Japanese fiscal yearend on March 31, and that it may contribute to "technical insolvency" for several banks when their equity holdings are marked to market at that time.

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The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead
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