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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, December 25, 2000

Indicator scoreboard
EMU - November harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.3 percent and 2.9 percent when compared with last year. Excluding energy prices, HICP rose 0.2 percent and 1.6 percent when compared with last year. All of the 11 states reported annual inflation rates above the 2.0 percent ECB target. The annual rate of increase rose in 6 out of 11 member states in November, while it remained unchanged in three and fell in two.

October seasonally adjusted industrial production fell 0.1 percent but was up 3.8 percent when compared with last year. Capital goods were up 8.9 percent when compared with last year. Weaker than average growth was recorded for non-durable and durable consumer goods of 0.6 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

Germany - November seasonally adjusted producer price index climbed 0.3 percent and 4.6 percent when compared with last year. The annual increase was the largest in more than 18 years. Oil product prices fell 0.9 percent but rose 29.3 percent when compared with last year. Excluding oil products, producer prices rose 0.3 percent on the month and 3.6 percent when compared with last year.

November import prices rose 0.5 percent and 12.5 percent when compared with last year. Excluding oil, import prices rose 0.4 percent while the annual rate dropped to 8.1 percent.

France - October seasonally and workday adjusted manufacturing output rose 0.8 percent and 3.6 percent when compared with last year. Monthly gains were led by the auto industry, which bounced back 1.9 percent from a 0.3 percent dip in September.

November seasonally and workday adjusted consumer spending on manufactured goods rose 0.8 percent and 2.9 percent when compared with last year. Strong monthly gains in household durables, including computers and cell phones, and other manufactured goods offset a further slide in auto sales. Auto sales declined for the fifth month in a row to the lowest level in 18 months. Excluding autos, parts and pharmaceuticals, spending on manufacturing goods was up 0.7 percent on the month.

Italy - Third quarter seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent and was up 2.6 percent when compared with last year. Third quarter growth was led by a strong contribution from net exports while domestic demand was weak.

November non-EU merchandise trade surplus declined to L112 billion from L386 bln in October and was sharply lower when compared with L1.708 trillion in November 1999. Non-EU imports were up 35.6 percent when compared with last year and non-EU exports rose 22.3 percent. EU exports rose 18.5 percent and imports rose 16.4 percent when compared with last year. October world trade surplus was L793 bln, with imports rising 27.7 percent and exports up 20.0 percent when compared with last year.

Spain - Third quarter real, workday and seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent and 3.9 percent when compared with last year.

October workday adjusted industrial production rose 0.8 percent when compared with last year. Unadjusted industrial production rose 2.6 percent when compared with last year. Strong gains were recorded in the capital goods sector, which were up 4.5 percent on the year.

Belgium - November Belgian National Bank's composite industry indicator jumped 2.2 points to plus 3.8, the highest level since May. The manufacturing sector indicator continued to recover adding 1.9 points to a 1.8 point gain in October. Most of the improvement came in recent export orders. The Belgian manufacturing sector is widely seen as a leading cyclical indicator for the EMU, given its concentration on semi-finished goods and the large share of exports to major EMU economies. In recent years, the central bank's industry indicator has shown a fairly close correlation to EMU industry confidence trends six months later.

Britain - Third quarter gross domestic product rose an unrevised 0.7 percent and 3 percent when compared with last year. Service sector output was revised up to 0.9 percent on the quarter from 0.7 percent previously published. This was offset by a very large downward revision to construction sector output, which is now seen falling by 1.4 percent on the quarter rather than rising by 0.4 percent as published last month.

November merchandise trade balance with countries outside the European Union was virtually unchanged from the previous month. In value terms, exports to non-EU countries rose 2.9 percent on the month while imports rose 1.4 percent. The value of both exports and imports are at a record monthly level.

Asia
Japan - November merchandise trade surplus with the rest of the world fell 9.8 percent when compared with last year but the surplus with the United States rose 18.2 percent. Global exports increased 10.1 percent on the year while imports grew 14.1 percent. This was the fifth straight month that the global surplus has contracted. The largest single reason for the rise in imports remains the higher price of oil, which rose 43.9 percent in yen terms in November from the same month a year earlier. Trade with the Asian region continued to grow at a fast clip, with imports from the region rising 19.7 percent and exports gaining 19.3 percent. Exports to the European Union fell 1.4 percent, a decline that was attributed to the sharp appreciation in the value of the yen against the euro. Imports from the EU also declined, slipping 1.6 percent.

October index of tertiary industries rose 0.1 percent and was up 2.9 percent on the year. The increase occurred despite declines in utilities, transport and communication and services. Positive contributions came only from real estate, and finance and insurance. The October all industry index was flat and was up 3.3 percent on the year.

Americas
Canada - October manufacturing shipments increased by 1.7 percent, led by a rebound in the electrical and electronic products and aircraft and parts industries. The increase in shipments was spread out over 15 of the 22 major groups in October, representing 78.9 percent of total shipments. Following September's decline, manufacturers' unfilled orders increased 0.2 percent with modest gains observed in the machinery industry and the transportation equipment industry. New orders climbed 4.3 percent, thanks to the transportation industry and in particular the aircraft and parts industry.

October merchandise trade surplus remained at C$4.6 billion. Both exports and imports were virtually unchanged largely because substantial increases in motor vehicle trade were almost entirely offset by declines in energy products export and industrial goods imports. Exports to the United States rose 0.8 percent and 14.8 percent when compared with last year. Imports from the United States were unchanged in October but up 4.8 percent when compared with last year.

October seasonally adjusted retail sales declined 0.9 percent but climbed 6.3 percent when compared with last year. Excluding sales by motor and recreational vehicle dealers, total retail sales advanced 0.9 percent on the month.

October gross domestic product at factor cost rose 0.5 percent and 4.6 percent when compared with last year. If the economy were flat for the remainder of the year, economic growth in 2000 would show a 4.6 percent annual gain. Total manufacturing production rose 1.3 percent on a broad-based gain that saw inventories continue to rise after building up in the third quarter. Manufacturing output was led by the electrical and electronic equipment industry, but was also buoyed by increased production of wood, plastic and primary metal products. The automotive industry, traditionally the engine of growth in manufacturing, saw only a modest gain. Overall, 17 of 22 major industry groups, accounting for almost 90 percent of total manufacturing production, advanced in October.

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