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Market Moving Indicators


Personal Income


Definition

Personal Income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions of private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends, and interest, and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Outlays are consumer spending which is divided into durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. These consumer spending data are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report.

Importance
Income is the major determinant of spendingÑUS consumers spend roughly 95 cents of each new dollar. Consumer spending accounts directly for nearly two-thirds of overall economic activity and indirectly influences capital spending, inventory investment and imports.

Interpretation
Increases in income and consumption cause bond prices to fall, while a weak income and spending report should cause bond prices to rise. As long as spending isn't inflationary, the stock market benefits because greater spending spurs corporate profits. It is worth noting that financial market participants pay somewhat less attention to this report than to retail sales which is released earlier in the month.

Changes in personal income signal changes in consumer spending. Comparing these changes indicates whether households are "overspending" and will need to slow their pace of expenditures or "underspending" and have the potential to accelerate their rate of purchases.

Personal income and consumer spending are measured in nominal dollars, but are also available in real (inflation-adjusted) figures. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Personal income is a comprehensive figure, but also incorporates taxes consumers must pay. By removing personal tax payments from personal income, we are left with disposable income. This is what consumers have left to spend on goods and services. Once again, we adjust for inflation to see growth in real disposable income.

Frequency
Monthly.

Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Availability
Usually the last week of the month.

Coverarge
Data are for the previous month. (Data for June are released in July.)

Revisions
Monthly, data for the prior three months are revised to incorporate more complete information

New seasonal adjustment factors are introduced every July. These revisions affect at least five years of data. The magnitude of the revisions is typically small.

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