Long Term Perspective

Debt burdens are at historically high levels while the savings rate is at historical lows. This underscores the high degree of confidence in the economy and the reliance on wealth appreciation as a substitute for saving.

Short Term Perspective

The sharp downward trend in savings persists even though stock prices were not appreciating for a good chunk of this year. Debt burdens also continue to climb. Should the jobless rate begin to rise sharply, consumers would be in trouble without a savings cushion.

Real GDP vs. Final Sales   •   Real Consumer Spending vs. Real Income   •   Debt Burden vs. Savings Rate

Business Fixed Investment vs. Net Cash Flow   •   New Orders   •   Housing Starts vs. Mortgage Rates

Merchandise Exports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar   •   Merchandise Imports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar