No doubt about it - the economy is moderating. The only question surrounds the degree of magnitude - will the economy enter a downturn or a growth recession? At this point, a soft landing is not likely. The employment situation for November set the tone of the month's economic reports, and this week's set of data followed the soggy trend. Holiday sales are hardly what retailers were hoping to see (although the verdict is still out). Economic figures should lead to a shift in thinking at the Federal Reserve. Santa Claus (Alan Greenspan) is sure to deliver a shift towards a neutral bias at the meeting this week, setting the stage for a rate reduction early next year. At least, this is the market consensus. Market players will no doubt hope for better loot in their Christmas stocking -- a reduction in the federal funds rate target on Tuesday. They can always dream.