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Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     12/8/00

Week of December 11 to December 15
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Wednesday
Economists are predicting retail sales will edge up 0.1 percent in November dampened by a drop in motor vehicle sales. (Forecast range: -0.1 percent to 0.5 percent) Excluding the volatile auto group, retail sales should increase 0.4 percent in November, on par with last month's gain, but relatively anemic for this time of year. (Forecast range: 0.2 percent to 0.6 percent)

Import prices are expected to rise 0.4 percent in November, just about reversing the previous month's gain. Oil prices typically skew this index. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.8 percent) Export prices should edge up 0.1 percent. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.2 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to decrease 2,000 in the week ended December 9 from last week's 352,000 level. (Forecast range: -5,000 to -38,000)

The consensus forecast is calling for a 0.2 percent hike in the producer price index in November, slower than the 0.4 percent gain posted in the previous month. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.3 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PPI should increase 0.1 percent for the month. This would reverse October's drop. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.2 percent)

Business inventories are predicted to rise 0.4 percent in October, faster than the 0.1 percent gain registered in September. Only manufacturers' inventories are currently available. Economists may revise this forecast on Monday after wholesale trade inventories are reported. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.5 percent)

Friday
Economists are predicting that the consumer price index will edge up 0.2 percent in November, the same pace as the previous month. (Forecast range: 0.2 percent to 0.3 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI should also edge up 0.2 percent in November. If this forecast is realized, it would match the October gain. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent)

The consensus forecast is predicting industrial production will edge down 0.1 percent in November. This reflects the sharp drop in the factory workweek along with no change in payrolls. (Forecast range: -0.3 percent to 0.1 percent) Consequently, the capacity utilization rate is expected to drop 0.4 percentage points to 81.8 in November. (Forecast range: 81.5 to 82 percent)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead

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