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"Alan
Greenspan’s statements have become like the Bible. Nobody The Popular
Sport of Fed Watching In the mid-1980s, the estimation of daily reserve needs and forecasts of M1 and M2 were still duties among Fed-watching economists. But since the Fed was no longer directly targeting monetary aggregates, following economic indicators gained stature instead. President Reagan appointed Alan Greenspan as Fed chair in August 1987. This marks the beginning of the modern era. Fedwatchers who only knew how to measure reserve needs or how to estimate weekly monetary aggregates were pushed to the rear by "real" economists, that is those who monitored the real (non-financial) side of the economy. Economic indicators became king. Indicators
followed by the Fed … Indicators followed by the Fed’s Chairman By definition, then, indicators that reveal inflation become important ones to follow. Federal Reserve policy-makers have long monitored the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI). They have also followed commodity prices. The Fed watches the monthly employment report because it reveals labor market conditions. The Fed clearly is concerned with economic growth and follows trends in gross domestic product (GDP). When we come down to the nitty gritty, Fed policy makers have long followed most of the economic indicators that are current financial market favorites. But the arrival of Alan Greenspan to the hallowed halls of the Federal Reserve brought attention to precise and detailed monitoring of economic indicators. Early on, financial market participants learned that the NAPM was a Greenspan favorite. It had not been a major market-moving indicator until 1987 when Greenspan said he watched the report’s supplier delivery component. The Great Crash revealed another Greenspan favorite: consumer confidence surveys. Fast forward to the 1990s and Greenspan revealed his favorite labor market indicators. For instance, he regularly monitored the quit rate in the mid-1990s when the unemployment rate was approaching 5.8 percent. At the same time, a greater significance was attached to the employment cost index. Getting
inside Greenspan’s head Inflation Nonetheless, Greenspan has traditionally preferred the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a preference he repeated again in his January speech before the Economics Club of New York. The PCE is available monthly and quarterly as part of the GDP report. Unlike the CPI, which is a fixed basket of goods, the PCE deflator allows consumers to substitute alternative goods that are lower priced. The trends are likely to be the same. The chart above compares year-over-year changes in the two measures. Both are rising on a year-over-year basis, but the PCE deflator is increasing about ˝ point less than the CPI since 1998. The employment cost index remains an important measure of inflation in the labor markets. The idea here is that accelerating compensation costs leads to consumer price inflation as companies try to offset labor costs by increasing the prices of the goods and services they produce. This index tends to be most consistent when looked at on a year-over-year basis, smoothing out quarterly fluctuations. Gold prices have often been considered an inflation-hedge and they have been relatively stable through much of this inflation-friendly business cycle. Prices began a sharp downward slide as Southeast Asian economies tumbled. In 1999, many central banks either announced their intentions to sell gold reserves or actually sold gold reserves (such as the Bank of England). However, analysts who monitor prices and production say the central bank sales are just a drop in the bucket compared with the metal’s total supply, making them an unlikely suspect for the price drop. In his congressional testimony in June 1999, Greenspan indicated his belief that the drop in gold prices reflects a favorable overall long-term outlook on inflation. Financial
Markets Behavior in the bond market is also relevant. When interest rates are rising, the cost of borrowing increases. Higher mortgage rates reduce affordability and housing construction. Higher interest rates also reduce business spending. Conversely, a low interest rate environment points to a booming economy, as we saw earlier this cycle. Policy-makers raised rates three times in 1999 in order to curtail the housing market and related industries. Economic
Growth The unemployment rate depends on the number of unemployed persons in the labor force. Not everyone in the population is actively looking for employment – and thus the labor force is changeable. The pool of available labor is a more comprehensive figure, which also considers those not currently in the labor force but who might like to work. Incidentally, more people are willing to work when the going wage rate is higher. Indeed, Greenspan & Company also monitor closely the pool of available workers, released monthly with the employment report. An economy benefits from productivity increases because it allows greater production capacity with no additional increases in labor. The standard of living increases because wage earners get increased wages that are not inflationary. Productivity trends have been favorable in the 1990s. Though Greenspan believes the trend could be favorable for a long period of time, he warns the growth rate of productivity may slow down. This would make it more difficult to see higher wages without higher prices. The
Bottom Line The Fed chairman has brought greater transparency to Fed actions. But when the institutional framework was traditionally one with virtually no transparency, the relative term ‘greater’ is misleading. Greenspan and fellow members of the FOMC often give their views on economic conditions, inflation, and the potential for Fed policy changes. But for the most part, their explanations (along with Greenspan’s) are as clear as mud. Do follow the Greenspan cadre of indicators. Do pay attention to the chairman’s remarks. But the chances of understanding him are 50/50 at best. Even when he tells us the indicators he monitors, you know that there are many more indicators actually on his screen. And then … there is always "anecdotal evidence". Fed-watching frenzy increases in direct proportion to the timing of the next FOMC meeting. The closer we are to a meeting, the more skittish market professionals are about each and every indicator. Beware. Daily indicator announcements, which reveal different angles of the economy, will no doubt shift the balance of expectations on Fed policy as frequently as individuals now follow stocks … daily or even hourly.
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