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No, the fiscal cliff problem has not gone away. However, the Fed’s FOMC met and it was one of the four meetings that occur in the third month of the quarter—meaning that not only is there the policy statement but also new economic forecasts from the Fed and also the chairman’s press conference. And—in contrast to Congress—Fed officials apparently are actually talking to each other because they got a lot done at this meeting, including some policy innovations.
 Equities were up Monday after McDonald's posted stronger than expected sales results and technology shares climbed higher on rumors that investor Carl Icahn is building a stake in the company. Earlier in the day, news out of China was favorable on that country’s industrial production and retail sales. Stocks jumped significantly Tuesday on news of significant gain in German investor confidence. German has Europe’s largest economy. Also, traders increased bets that the Fed would announce the next day new policy initiatives to boost the economy.
Stocks were up most of Wednesday, including after the Fed did announce new policy measures just after Noon ET, after new Fed forecasts, and even during early portions of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference. But equities declined after Bernanke said that the Fed does not have the tools to offset the impact of the fiscal cliff on the economy should that occur.
Thursday, equities were down notably despite a drop in initial jobless claims and a moderately healthy gain in retail sales. Lack of progress on resolving the fiscal cliff weighed on markets as rhetoric between lawmakers heated up. At week’s end, a rise in industrial production and a decline in consumer prices (on lower energy costs) were not enough to offset market worries about the clock ticking down on when the fiscal cliff kicks in on January. Also, a downgrade on Apple by an analyst also pushed stocks down—especially in the tech sector.
Equities were mostly down this past week. The Dow was down 0.2 percent; the S&P 500, down 0.3 percent; the Nasdaq, down 0.2 percent; and the Wilshire 5000, down 0.3 percent. The Russell 2000 was up 0.2 percent;
For the year-to-date, major indexes are up as follows: the Dow, up 7.5 percent; the S&P 500, up 12.4 percent; the Nasdaq, up 14.1 percent; the Russell 2000, up 11.2 percent; and the Wilshire 5000, up 12.3 percent.
Weekly percent change column reflects percent changes for all components except interest rates. Interest rate changes are reflected in simple differences.
 Treasury yields ended the week mixed as short rates eased while longer maturity yields rose. After a quiet Monday, rates firmed Tuesday on improved hope for resolution of the fiscal cliff and as funds flowed into equities. At mid-week, bond traders—ever sensitive to inflation trends—became nervous about possibly increasing inflation pressures down the road after the Fed announced more quantitative easing in part to replace Operation Twist which ends December 31. Bond traders also were not happy that the Fed switched to indicator based guidance on exceptionally low rates instead staying date based. Some see the Fed focusing more on unemployment and not enough on constraining inflation.
On Thursday, bond traders apparently paid more attention to the economic news than worrying about the fiscal cliff. Yields firmed on a drop in initial jobless claims and boost in retail sales. Also, the 30-year bond auction did not go well. At week’s close, rates eased, primarily due to soft readings on consumer price inflation.
For this past week Treasury rates were mixed as follows: the 5-year note, up 6 basis points; the 7-year note, up 9 basis points; the 10-year note, up 8 basis points; and the 30-year bond, up 5 basis points. The 3-month T-bill declined 6 basis points while the 2-year note edged down 1 basis point.
 The spot price of West Texas Intermediate ended the week up only slightly. Additionally, daily swings in prices were almost non-existent with the largest daily swing being a gain of 85 cents per barrel on Wednesday. This rise was due to the Fed’s new policy initiatives and due to the International Energy Agency increasing its demand forecast after economic news out of China has grown a little more positive.
Net for the week, the spot price for West Texas Intermediate firmed 82 cents per barrel to settle at $86.86.
The latest data showed improvement in manufacturing and consumer spending. Meanwhile, overall inflation fell.
 Retail sales made a moderate comeback in November despite a drop in gasoline prices weighing on the nominal headline figure. Autos were up as well as was the key core component. Total retail sales in November rebounded 0.3 percent, following a 0.3 percent decline the prior month.
Motor vehicle sales rebounded 1.4 percent after a 1.9 percent decrease in October. Earlier in the month, unit new motor vehicle sales pointed to an even stronger increase but the Commerce Department’s sample size is not as good and PCE spending may be even stronger.
Ex-auto sales were unchanged, following a flat figure for October. Gasoline sales dropped 4.0 percent in November, following a 1.0 percent rise the prior month. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales gained a healthy 0.7 percent, following a 0.1 percent decline in October.
 Core components were mostly positive with some subcomponents notably strong. Leading the sales less autos and less gasoline component were nonstore retailers, up 3.0 percent; electronics & appliance stores, up 2.5 percent, and building materials & garden equipment, up 1.6 percent. Also gaining were furniture & home furnishings, health & personal care, clothing, sporting goods & hobby & books, miscellaneous store retailers, and food services & drinking places.
On the downside within the core, general merchandise fell 0.9 percent while food & beverage stores declined 0.3 percent.
Even though the headline number fell short of expectations due to a sharp drop in gasoline prices, the report is actually notably favorable. Auto sales were up and sales excluding autos and excluding gasoline were quite healthy. It looks like retailers (except department stores) are doing well this holiday season. Economists are likely to nudge up their forecasts for fourth quarter GDP. And PCEs spending may be stronger than retail sales as they are based on a variation of unit new motor vehicle sales instead of the retail sales auto component.
 Industrial production rebounded in November with notable help from recovering from Hurricane Sandy and a boost in auto assemblies. Industrial production rebounded 1.1 percent, following a decline of 0.7 percent in October (originally down 0.4 percent). The market consensus was for a 0.3 percent gain.
In November, the manufacturing component increased 1.1 percent after dropping 1.0 percent in October. Analysts expected a 0.4 percent boost. According to the Fed, nearly all the decline in factory output in October is estimated to have been related to Hurricane Sandy, and the increase in November reflects a post-hurricane rebound in production as well as the solid advance in the output of motor vehicles and parts. Within manufacturing, increases were widespread in November across both durable and nondurable goods industries.
 The bright spot in manufacturing for November was motor vehicles & parts, which jumped 4.5 percent after no change the month before. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing output rebounded 0.8 percent after a 1.0 percent drop in October.
The output of utilities jumped 1.0 percent in November, following no change the prior month. Production at mines advanced 0.8, following a 0.3 percent rise in October.
Capacity utilization for total industry rose to 78.4 percent from 77.7 percent in October.
The bottom line is that manufacturing has seen sharp swings over the last two months due to Hurricane Sandy. But net for the period, this sector is still soft. The clearly positive news is that consumers are out shopping for new cars. That is good news for manufacturing. And it suggests that while consumers are in a bad mood about the pending fiscal cliff, potential tax increases, and perhaps even their view of the outcome of the presidential election, they are spending despite survey recorded glum views.
The first half of December has been very good for the nation's manufacturers based on the PMI flash index which rose to 54.2, up a solid 1.4 points from the final index for November. A reading over 50 indicates monthly growth in business activity and a reading over the prior reading indicates a greater rate of growth.
Details were solid across the report led by monthly acceleration in new orders which were up 1.2 points to 54.8. A special highlight is the index for new export orders which, following a long streak under 50, first popped over the breakeven mark last month and is now at 52.8. This suggests that foreign demand is on the mend.
Other readings include a strong and sustainable rate for output and -- in a special positive -- a strong and increasing rate of employment where the index is at 54.4.
The PMI in recent months has been a little more positive than the ISM manufacturing index, although both have not strayed far from breakeven in recent months. The PMI has a larger sample size than ISM.
 The other good news for manufacturing is that businesses have kept a tight rein on inventory levels. Inventory growth slowed in October but not enough given a negative reversal in sales. Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in October for the lowest rise since June. Business sales, however, fell 0.4 percent to end three straight months of gains. The mismatch pushes the stock-to-sales ratio to 1.29 versus September's 1.28. Nonetheless, the inventory-to-sales ratio is still low and businesses will not require much adjustment to stocks on the shelves. And early evidence is that sales are healthy and will take care of backroom shelves.
 Yes, the trade gap widened but trade shrank—possibly on weakness abroad. The U.S. trade balance in October widened somewhat on higher oil imports and on slippage in the services surplus. Weakness in Europe and Japan is hitting the shores of the U.S. as the decline in exports was widespread. The trade deficit worsened to $42.2 billion from $40.3 billion in September. Exports fell 3.6 percent in October, following a 3.1 percent rebound the month before. Imports fell 2.1 percent after gaining 1.5 percent in September.
 The widening in the trade gap was led by the petroleum deficit which increased to $24.6 billion in October from $21.6 billion in September. However, the non-petroleum goods shortfall shrank to $33.8 billion from $35.2 billion for the previous month. The services surplus slipped to $16.9 billion from $17.0 billion in September.
It is becoming clearer that sluggishness in manufacturing is significantly due to a decline in global trade. Weakness in goods exports showed up in all major end-use categories, led by a $2.9 billion drop in industrial supplies, including a subcomponent fall of $0.9 billion in nonmonetary gold. Other declines were for capital goods excluding autos, down $1.9 billion; automotive, down $0.4 billion; consumer goods, down $0.1 billion; and foods, feeds & beverages, down $1.4 billion.
On the import side, all major end-use categories were down except for industrial supplies which rose $0.4 billion. However, the crude oil subcomponent worsened $2.1 billion. Also, on the downside consumer goods dropped $3.6 billion, automotive dipped $0.5 billion, and capital goods excluding autos declined $0.4 billion.
Weakness in global growth may be cutting into both exports and imports. U.S. manufacturers clearly are suffering in part to recession in Europe and Japan. Also, U.S. businesses may be a little skeptical about consumer demand.
 Consumer price inflation dropped in November on lower energy costs and the core rate softened. The consumer price index in November fell 0.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase the month before. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, following a boost of 0.2 percent in October.
 By major components, energy fell a monthly 4.1 percent after dipping 0.2 percent in October. Gasoline dropped a monthly 7.4 percent in November, following a decline of 0.6 percent the prior month. Food prices increased 0.2 percent, matching the pace in October.
Within the core, softness was led by declines in prices for apparel and also used cars & trucks.
Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation came in at 1.8 percent versus 2.2 percent in October (seasonally adjusted). The core rate eased to 1.9 percent in November from 2.0 percent the prior month. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline CPI was up 1.8 percent, compared to 2.2 percent in October. The core was up 1.9 percent versus 2.0 percent the month before, not seasonally adjusted.
The November report clearly was favorable toward the Fed continuing extremely loose monetary policy. The year-ago rates were below the Fed’s long-term goal of 2 percent inflation and well below the newly announced trigger of 2.5 percent for unwinding loose policy.
 Inflation continued to weaken at the producer level in November on lower energy costs. Overall PPI inflation dropped 0.8 percent after falling 0.2 percent in October. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rebounded a modest 0.1 percent, following a decline of 0.2 percent in October.
Food inflation jumped 1.3 percent after rising 0.4 percent in October. Energy costs at the producer level dropped a sharp monthly 4.6 percent in November, following a 0.5 percent rise the prior month. Gasoline declined 10.1 percent, following a decrease of 2.2 percent in October.
 Within the core, higher prices for passenger cars and light trucks led the November gain, increasing 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.
For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in November came in at 1.4 percent, compared to October at 2.3 percent (seasonally adjusted). The core rate in November was 2.2 percent versus 2.1 percent month before. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for November, the year-ago headline PPI was up 1.5 percent, while the core was up 2.2 percent.
 Despite substantial technical changes from the latest FOMC decision, the Fed is essentially finding new ways of maintaining loose monetary policy and apparently expanding the balance sheet further. Among the key points, the Fed left policy rates unchanged and exceptionally low with the fed funds target still at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Guidance was changed from a timing target to an economic indicator trigger for change in policy. Operation Twist (which ends December 31) is being replaced with another purchase program that is closely comparable in magnitude to Operation Twist.
 Guidance from recent FOMC statements has been in terms of timing—how long the Fed expected policy rates to be exceptionally low. At the October meeting, guidance was that rates would be exceptionally low through at least mid-2015. With this past week’s statement, the Fed switched to guidance based on unemployment and inflation indicators. Now, the Fed says that exceptionally low rates “will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.”
The Fed emphasized that it is focusing on both portions of its policy mandate. This appears to be intended to calm markets that constraining inflation is still important.
“When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.”
The Fed is going to implement additional quantitative easing to replace Operation Twist which expires December 31.
“To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.”
Regarding the status of the economy, the Fed stated that “economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated.”
“Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.”
There was one dissent on the policy vote. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker voted against, opposing the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.
The bottom line is that the Fed is keeping monetary policy extremely loose. Quantitative easing will keep downward pressure on long-term rates, including mortgage rates. The marginal impact of Fed policy has declined but probably is still positive. The housing sector has been a key beneficiary of current policy and this is probably the biggest recent impact with unemployment benefitting only marginally. Low rates likely are providing some lift to asset prices in general.
At Chairman Bernanke’s press conference, the Fed chairman noted that conditions in the jobs market represent an enormous waste. It also became apparent that the Fed’s switch on forward guidance from timing (mid-2015) to economic indicators on unemployment and inflation is broader than initially interpreted from the statement. The labor market benchmark is not just the unemployment rate but that combined with other related indicators such as hourly earnings, hours worked, the impact of changes in discouraged workers, and the participation rate. Bernanke emphasized that the 6.5 percent unemployment rate is a potential trigger and not a goal. He sees this trigger rate being reached about mid-2015. Bernanke stated that the Fed will take a balanced approach, watching both labor market conditions and inflation.
Markets generally likely the FOMC statement and even the chairman’s press conference—until Bernanke discussed the pending fiscal cliff. The Fed chairman warned that Fed support cannot fully offset the downside risks presented by the fiscal cliff. Bernanke expects Congress to reach a deal, but noted that its inaction has already resulted in a troubling drop in business confidence.
The economy is bumping along on a low but positive trajectory. The consumer sector somehow keeps showing more life than you might expect. Manufacturing is sluggish but not negative. And the Fed has been extremely creative in keeping rates low and liquidity in the financial markets. Still, resolution of the fiscal cliff is needed—preferably by Christmas but many would be happy to merely beat the January 1 deadline.
Upcoming news is loaded with data on manufacturing, housing, and the consumer. Hurricane Sandy has caused sharp down and up swings in production numbers but net still soft. So, regional Fed manufacturing news from New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City will garner attention. Housing has been on a moderate uptrend and traders want to see housing keep the recovery going. Updates are posted for housing starts and permits, and existing home sales. The consumer sector recently has been mixed with spending moderately healthy but sentiment dropping, suggesting spending is at risk. This week’s updates include personal income and outlays and consumer sentiment.
The Empire State manufacturing index was little affected by Hurricane Sandy but the index in November nonetheless remained in contraction mode, posting at minus 5.22 versus minus 6.16 in October. But key details showed improvement, especially shipments which surged to a very strong 14.59 and new orders which at 3.08 showed their first monthly increase since June. But there were also negatives in the report, including a big contraction for employment at minus 14.61.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for December 12: 0.0
Range: -7.0 to 8.5
NAHB housing market index for October was up a very sharp five points to 46 for the highest reading in 6-1/2 years. Regional data showed only an incremental slowing in the Northeast and showed evenly distributed and very strong gains across other regions. By components, November's gain was strongly centered in current sales which points to strength for new home sales and for housing starts. The six-month outlook for sales showed a modest gain while customer traffic, perhaps reflecting a lack of additional buyers, was flat. The report notes that declining inventory of distressed homes is a plus for builders who however continue to complain about tight credit conditions.
NAHB housing market index Consensus Forecast for November 12: 47
Range: 45 to 49
Housing starts jumped a sharp 15.0 percent in September to an annualized pace of 0.872 million units and was up 34.8 percent on a year-ago basis. The latest increase was led by the multifamily component which jumped 25.1 percent, following a 3.2 percent dip in August. However, the single-family component also improved, gaining a notable 11.0 percent in September after a 7.3 percent increase the prior month. Housing permits jumped 11.6 percent in September to an annualized pace of 0.894 million, which was up 45.1 percent on a year-ago basis.
Housing starts Consensus Forecast for October 12: 0.865 million-unit rate
Range: 0.840 million to 0.940 million-unit rate
Housing permits Consensus Forecast for October 12: 0.875 million-unit rate
Range: 0.845 million to 0.914 million-unit rate
GDP growth for the third quarter was revised up significantly but the composition deteriorated. The Commerce Department put the second estimate at 2.7 percent annualized, compared to the advance estimate of 2.0 percent and second quarter rate of 1.3 percent. But the composition shifted toward inventory investment and away from demand components. Final sales of domestic product rose 1.9 percent versus the advance figure of 2.1 percent and second quarter growth of 1.7 percent. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) were revised to 1.7 percent from the advance estimate of 2.3 percent and compared the prior quarter's 1.4 percent. Headline inflation for the GDP price index remained strong in the third quarter, revised down marginally to 2.7 percent from the initial 2.8 percent reading and following 1.6 percent in the second quarter. But when excluding food and energy, inflation pressure is softer as the revised second quarter figure came in at 1.3 percent, compared to the initial estimate of 1.5 percent and the second quarter's 1.4 percent.
Real GDP Consensus Forecast for third estimate Q3 12: +2.8 percent annual rate
Range: +2.6 to +3.0 percent annual rate
GDP price index Consensus Forecast for third estimate Q3 12: +2.7 percent annual rate
Range: +2.7 to +2.8 percent annual rate
Initial jobless claims for the December 8 week posted a 29,000 decline as jobless claims continued to unwind effects from Hurricane Sandy which caused a giant 90,000 spike in the November 10 week. Data since then show four straight weeks of major declines that total 108,000. Continuing claims show the same pattern—a string of declines following a surge in early November immediately following the storm. Continuing claims for the December 1 week fell 23,000 to 3.271 million which is the lowest rate since the November 3 week.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 12/15/12: 359,000
Range: 345,000 to 395,000
Existing home sales in October bounced up 2.1 percent to a 4.79 million annual rate following a revised 2.9 percent decline in the prior month. Sales in the Northeast, which was hit at month end by Hurricane Sandy, fell 1.7 percent. The report's other three regions, led by the West, all showed gains. Continuing to hold down sales is lack of supply, down from 5.6 months in September to 5.4 months for the lowest rate in 6-1/2 years. The number of homes on the market, at 2.14 million, is the lowest in 10 years.
Existing home sales Consensus Forecast for November 12: 4.90 million-unit rate
Range: 4.60 to 4.96 million-unit rate
The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey took a hit in November as Hurricane Sandy definitely had a major impact on manufacturing data from the Philly Fed. The general business conditions index swung a severe 16.4 points lower to minus 10.7. Negatives swept the Philly Fed report including new orders which declined 4.0 points to minus 4.6.
Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for December 12: -2.0
Range: -12.4 to 15.0
The FHFA purchase only house price index advanced 0.2 percent in September, following a 0.5 percent gain in August. Year-on-year, the index was up 4.3 percent, compared to 4.5 percent in August. Regionally, prices were mixed as only three of the nine Census regions were up in August, three flat, and three down. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes for September ranged from minus 1.0 percent in the New England division to plus 0.8 percent in the Middle Atlantic division.
FHFA purchase only house price index Consensus Forecast for October 12: +0.3 percent
Range: 0.0 to +1.5 percent
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.2 percent in October pointing to modestly expanding economic activity ahead. Trends showed improvement for housing and finance which are offsetting weakness in consumer/jobs and manufacturing. The Conference Board, which publishes the report, noteed that Hurricane Sandy had no effect on the data, at least not in October. But they suspect November may show adverse impact on consumer spending and home building.
Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for November 12: -0.2 percent
Range: -0.3 to +0.2 percent
Quadruple Witching
Durable goods orders in October gained 0.5 percent after rebounding 9.1 percent September and after a massive 13.1 percent fall in August. The transportation component tugged down on October data. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.8 percent after gaining 1.7 percent in September. The transportation component fell 2.3 percent after a 29.7 percent surge in September. Outside of transportation, strength was widespread. Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.
New orders for durable goods Consensus Forecast for November 12: +0.5 percent
Range: -1.5 percent to +2.2 percent
New orders for durable goods, ex-trans., Consensus Forecast for November 12: +0.2 percent
Range: -1.0 percent to +0.7 percent
Personal income in October was flat for the month, following a 0.4 percent boost in September. Notably, the important wages & salaries component fell 0.2 percent after gaining 0.3 percent in September. The Commerce Department indicated that Hurricane Sandy weighed down on private wages and salaries. Hurricane Sandy also dumped on spending. Consumer spending for the latest month declined 0.2 percent, compared to a 0.8 percent surge in September. Turning to inflation, the headline PCE price index eased to 0.1 percent from a sizeable 0.3 percent jump in September. The core rate held steady at 0.1 percent. Looking ahead, private aggregate earnings rose 0.3 percent, suggesting a moderate rise in the private wages & salaries component in personal income. PCE inflation is likely to soft in October as the CPI for the month fell 0.3 percent and the core CPI edged up 0.1 percent
Personal income Consensus Forecast for November 12: +0.3 percent
Range: -0.1 to +0.8 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for November 12: +0.4 percent
Range: +0.2 to +0.7 percent
PCE price index Consensus Forecast for November 12: -0.2 percent
Range: -0.3 to +0.2 percent
Core PCE price index Consensus Forecast for November 12: +0.1 percent
Range: 0.0 to +0.2 percent
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to minus 0.56 from zero in September. The production component fell to minus 0.45 from September's minus 0.06 reflecting Hurricane Sandy's big hit to the industrial production report. The component for consumption & housing, dragged down by a decline in housing permits, fell to minus 0.19 from minus 0.17.
Consensus forecasts are not currently available.
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell a very steep 8.2 points to 74.5 for the initial reading for December. This was the lowest reading since August. Weakness was centered squarely in the expectations component which plunged 13 points to 64.6. A separate reading on 12-month economic expectations was especially down, falling a whopping 22 points to 75.
Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for final December 12: 75.0
Range: 64.9 to 82.0
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index slipped to minus 6 in November from minus 4 in October. This marked the first time the composite index has been negative for two straight months since mid-2009. Manufacturing slowed at durable goods-producing plants, while nondurable factories reported a slight uptick in activity, particularly for food and plastics products.
Kansas City Fed manufacturing index Consensus Forecast for December 12: -3
Range: -5 to 0
R. Mark Rogers is the author of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Economic Indicators, Penguin Books, 2009.
Econoday Senior Writer Mark Pender contributed to this article.
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