Global Markets

Equities were mostly lower in the last week of the month and quarter. Yet for the month, most indexes advanced despite the late losses. And with the exception of the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite, most indexes reversed second quarter losses and advanced in the third.

There was a myriad of issues confronting investors last week. They waited to hear from Spain about its proposed budget and from its independent auditors who conducted stress tests on the country’s banks. Demonstrations in Spain and Greece protesting the severe cutbacks and soaring unemployment kept the sovereign debt situation front and center.

The pace of new economic data releases also picked up towards the end of the week, with much of it below analysts’ forecasts. A slew of data from Japan, and in particular its manufacturing PMI for September and industrial output for August, showed an economy suffering the ripple event of the global slowdown. Data from the U.S. were mixed but not as weak as in Europe. And in China, August industrial companies’ profits dropped for a fifth month. But the Shanghai Composite bounced decisively as investors hoped for some sort of stimulus ahead of the Golden Week holiday, which starts on Monday.

China’s manufacturers and retailers are less optimistic about sales than they were three months ago and more companies are cutting jobs, according to a survey modeled on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The China Beige Book, through interviews of more than 2,000 company executives and bankers from August 9^th to September 3^rd, found limits to monetary easing after interest rate cuts in June and July, with banks loosening credit while fewer companies are borrowing, according to a summary from CBB International LLC that conducted the survey.

Global Stock Market Recap

Global Stock Market Recap— Quarterly Results

Europe and the UK

Equities were mixed last week as nervous investors awaited news from Spain including its 2013 budget and the results of bank stress tests. The budget was released after markets closed on Thursday and the stress tests followed after markets closed on Friday. Economic data were mixed but focus was on the evolving European situation. All indexes followed here declined for the week. The SMI was down 1.7 percent and the FTSE slid 1.9 percent. Other declines ranged from 2.5 percent (OMX Stockholm) to 6.3 percent (IBEX). Only the CAC was down for the month of September while the IBEX was virtually unchanged. The quarter however, paints another picture — all the indexes advanced. The gains ranged from 3.1 percent for the FTSE to a hefty 12.5 percent for the DAX.

Spain's budget minister also said the country would meet budget deficit targets this year, but he expects a 'soft recession' next year. Spain also announced a detailed timetable for economic reforms and a tough 2013 budget based mostly on spending cuts. An official with the European Union's executive body said Thursday the reform plan goes beyond what the group has recommended in some areas. The country said it would tap €3 billion from a reserve fund to cover its liquidity needs. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has vowed to cut the deficit by at least €18 billion next year, defying tens of thousands of demonstrators who fought with police in Madrid to demand that the premier reverse course and resign.

The results of Spain’s bank stress test were released after markets closed on Friday. The country commissioned the independent stress test as part of the conditions agreed in July for a European bailout of as much as €100 billion for its banking system, which has been saddled with more than €180 billion of losses linked to souring real estate assets. The attempt to show how its banks would bear an extreme scenario in which the economy would shrink for three years in a row is part of the government’s drive to show it is fixing Spain’s economy as it considers whether to seek a further rescue package from Europe. Spain’s banks have a combined capital shortfall of €59.3 billion.

Asia Pacific

Equities were mixed last week. The markets in this region were weighed down by the standoff between China and Japan on islands in the East China Sea. Tensions in the Eurozone once again ratcheted up as investors waited the Spanish budget and Greece sought additional ways to stem the bleeding. Equities declined in Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. For the month, only Malaysia was down. China and Japan declined on the quarter while most others tracked here rebounded from second quarter losses.

The dispute on the status of the islands touches on historical grievances in East Asia dating from World War II and before and is threatening vital trade relations in the region. The disagreement is around a chain of small, rocky islands controlled by Japan, but also claimed by China and Taiwan. The islands, called the Senkaku Islands in Japan and the Diaoyu Islands in China, are uninhabited, but the waters around them are coveted fishing grounds and may have large gas reserves.

Equities rallied Friday as news from both Spain and Greece where the respective governments outlined plans to further cut spending and raise taxes sent positive signals to financial markets. The proposed austerity measures, announced amid fierce public protests and continued hopes for fresh Chinese stimulus following a record amount of liquidity injected into the banking system by China's People’s Bank of China earlier in the week, spurred some bargain hunting following recent losses. Weak economic data out of China and South Korea raised speculation that central banks will do more to support global growth.

Profits at China's major industrial enterprises fell more steeply in August, dropping for a fifth month, weighed down by sluggish markets both at home and abroad. Industrial profits fell 6.2 percent from a year earlier to 381.2 billion yuan in the month, compared to the 5.4 percent drop in July, signaling that the economic slowdown probably extended into the third quarter.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar was up against most of its major counterparts last week. The euro declined against the dollar after the Chicago purchasing managers’ index and consumer sentiment data trailed forecasts on Friday, denting demand for riskier assets. However, the yen and the U.S. dollar, which are regarded as safe havens, gained.

The U.S. currency strengthened after the Chicago PMI slipped below the 50 breakeven point for the first time in three years to 49.7 signaling a lack of growth. The euro dropped after gains Thursday following Spain’s announcement of its fifth austerity package amid speculation the nation will seek a bailout. The euro strengthened against the dollar after Spain announced its fifth austerity package, adding to speculation that it will meet the requirements for a European financial bailout to contain its debt crisis. Recent weak economic data which is weighing on the stock market is making investors shun risk — a result of which is that the euro declines.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the euro's share of central banks' foreign exchange reserves rose to 25.1 percent in the second quarter — or $1.47 trillion. The dollar's share fell to 61.9 percent, from 62.1 percent though the overall amount of U.S. currency held was up. The root of the increase in euro reserves mostly came down to one buyer — the Swiss National Bank. Meanwhile, central banks joined investors in buying the yen, which is viewed as one of the most stable currencies to hold during times of market turmoil. The yen's share of reserves reached 3.8 percent and its highest since 2005 as overall holdings rose 4.9 percent to $220.2 billion. While 143 countries report individual currencies they own to the IMF, other central banks including China do not. China holds large foreign exchange reserves, much of which is in U.S. dollars.

Selected currencies — weekly results

Indicator scoreboard

EMU

August M3 money supply growth slowed unexpectedly to 2.9 percent, down 0.7 percentage points from July. However, the ECB's preferred 3-month moving average measure is steady at 3.2 percent. Bank lending to the private sector declined 0.6 percent on the year after a 0.4 percent drop last time. Loans to households eased to a 0.2 percent rate within which borrowing for house purchases was unchanged at 0.8 percent. However, lending to non-financial corporations saw its 12-month rate of decline steepen from 0.4 percent in July to 0.8 percent. In addition, borrowing by non-monetary financial intermediates (excluding insurance companies and pension funds) declined at a 3.8 percent annual pace from down 2.8 percent last time.

September economic sentiment index slid 1.1 points to a reading of 85.0. The decline was the seventh drop in a row and left the index at its lowest level since August 2009. The latest decline reflected small but broad-based losses in confidence at the sector level with just construction (minus 31.9 after minus 33.1) making any headway. Morale in the consumer sector was down 1.3 points at minus 25.9, in line with its flash reading, and fell 0.7 points to minus 16.1 in industry, 1.4 points to minus 18.6 in retail and 1.2 points to minus 12.0 in services. Regionally, sentiment worsened in France (1.6 points) and Germany (1.1 points) but improved in Spain (1.3 points) and was essentially flat in Italy (minus 0.1 points). All four larger states were again below the common 100 long-run average. Among the smaller countries, Cyprus, at 67.9, declined 3.6 points to match its record low and with a 5 point drop to 74.1. Portugal was just 3 points above its historic trough.

September flash harmonized index of consumer prices were up 2.7 percent on the year, up from 2.6 percent in August. The increase was due to energy prices which were up 9.2 percent on the year. Otherwise the acceleration is due to the service sector where inflation picked up to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent in mid-quarter. However, non-energy industrial goods inflation eased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.8 percent and food, alcohol & tobacco prices dipped to a 2.9 percent annual rate. This is the first occasion that Eurostat has provided a partial breakdown of the headline figure in the flash report, full details of which, including the key core rates, will be released on October 16.

Germany

September overall Ifo economic sentiment was down 0.9 points to 101.4, its lowest level since February 2010. The decline reflected minor losses in both components. Current conditions slipped 0.8 points to 110.3, their third decline in a row, while expectations were down a point at 93.2, their fifth straight monthly drop. Weakness was mainly apparent in manufacturing and construction where the respective diffusion indexes fell 2.9 points to minus 4.2 and 3.1 points to minus 10.1 respectively. However, there were partially offsetting gains in wholesale (2.1 points to zero) and retail (0.7 points to minus 4.0). The (unadjusted) services index also rose 1.4 points to 14.1 courtesy of a bounce in current conditions.

September unemployment increased 9,000 after a marginally larger revised 11,000 rise in August. The unemployment rate remained at 6.8 percent for the 10th month. The number of people out of work now stands at 2.911 million. Vacancies slid a further 4,000 following a 5,000 decline last time and so warn of probable additional job losses to come. According to the ILO survey released just ahead of the FSO figures, employment in August was down 4,000. This followed gains of 22,000 and 23,000 in June and July respectively and constituted the first monthly decline since January 2010.

August retail sales were up 0.3 percent and were down 0.8 percent on the year. August's gain left volumes at their second weakest level since February and saw average purchases in July/August 0.7 percent below their second quarter mean when they expanded just 0.3 percent. In the absence of any revisions, a monthly increase of close to 2 percent will be needed in September for third quarter purchases just to match their previous period's reading. Today's official figures compare with the retail PMI which pointed to stagnating sales in mid-quarter. Since then, consumer sentiment has edged weaker while morale in the retail sector has stabilized according to the newly released EU Commission survey.

France

Revised second quarter gross domestic product confirmed the stagnation reported in the flash release with real GDP unchanged from the previous period for third quarter in a row. Annual growth was similarly unrevised at just 0.3 percent. Among the GDP expenditure components, household consumption was revised up for a 0.1 percent quarterly decline. Earlier gains in capital spending and government expenditure were both revised a tick lower to 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent respectively. In addition, with exports expanding 0.2 percent from the first quarter and imports a smaller revised 1.7 percent, the negative contribution from net foreign trade was reduced from 0.5 percentage points to 0.4 percentage points. Total final domestic demand grew just a quarterly 0.1 percent and stock building still added 0.3 percentage points to the bottom line.

August consumption of manufactured goods dropped 1.0 percent on the month and was down 0.9 percent on the year. Weakness was broad based with just autos (0.6 percent) avoiding a monthly drop. Household goods were down a hefty 2.0 percent, textiles an even steeper 2.2 percent while the other products category saw sales 0.3 percent weaker. Total spending on goods dropped 0.8 percent from the start of the quarter and was 0.5 percent lower on the year.

August producer prices jumped 1.2 percent and were 2.6 percent higher on the year. Inevitably it was the energy sector that did the damage. Prices for coke and refined petroleum products jumped 7.8 percent on the month following a 5.8 percent surge in July. Elsewhere however, developments were more restrained although food & drink charges climbed a relatively steep 0.8 percent. Electrical equipment & machines saw a 0.2 percent advance, transport materials were up 0.1 percent and the other products category 0.4 percent. Utilities recorded a 1.1 percent monthly increase. Annual headline PPI inflation is now at its highest level, since April but underlying trends remain benign enough.

United Kingdom

Final second quarter GDP contracted 0.4 percent and was down 0.5 percent from a year ago. Household spending slid 0.2 percent from the previous period compared with the 0.4 percent drop estimated last time. Gross fixed capital formation was down a quarterly 2.7 percent and government final consumption 1.6 percent. However, total domestic expenditure grew 0.4 percent thanks to stock building. Goods exports dropped 2.4 percent on the quarter while services were 1.0 percent higher. Imports were up 1.1 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, making for a significant negative contribution to the bottom line and, at Stg20.76 billion, a record current account deficit.

Asia/Pacific

Japan

August unemployment rate slipped to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in July. On the year, employment was down 20,000 to 62.81 million. The number of unemployed dropped 180,000 or 6.1 percent to 2.77 million from the previous year. The labour force participation rate slipped 0.1 percent to 59.1 percent. The employment rate was unchanged at 56.6 percent.

August consumer prices were up 0.1 percent on the month but dropped 0.4 percent on the year. Core CPI excluding fresh food only edged up 0.2 percent but slid 0.3 percent from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the index was up 0.1 percent but down 0.5 percent from last August. The core CPI was hit by depressed TV and other consumer electronic prices and despite higher utility costs. However, the monthly increases were thanks to higher accommodation costs and air fares. Consumer durable goods prices dropped 10.1 percent on the year. However, food prices declined as well as did gasoline.

August household expenditures jumped 1.8 percent on the year after increasing 1.7 percent last time. It was the seventh consecutive increase. Among the subcategories gains and losses were split. Furniture & household spending was up 6.9 percent while medical care and transportation & communication were up 8.9 percent and 8.5 percent respectively when compared with a year ago. However, housing dropped 8.5 percent and education spending lost 5.4 percent. Clothing & footwear spending was 3.0 percent lower.

August industrial output dropped a more than expected 1.3 percent and was down 4.3 percent from a year ago. It was the second consecutive monthly decline. According to METI, many firms said August output fell on weaker exports of mobile phones and their parts to China. METI's latest survey of firms' forecasts showed that overall production is expected to drop for a third month. Electronic parts and devices which are sensitive to global economic trends dropped for the fifth month in six, this time by 5.2 percent. Transportation equipment which is mostly autos dropped 0.4 percent as the positive effects of government subsidies for buying low emission vehicles continued to wane.

August retail sales were up 1.8 percent from the same month a year ago after sinking 0.7 percent in July. Among the major categories, machinery & equipment continued to drop, this time by 10.1 percent after plunging 26.7 percent last time. Fuel also declined, down 4.8 percent after 6.9 percent in July. However, sales of fabrics, apparel & accessories were up 4.0 percent from a year ago while food & beverage rebounded 1.2 percent after declining 1.5 percent the month before. Motor vehicles were up 19.6 percent.

Americas

Canada

July retail sales were up 0.7 percent and 3.0 percent on the year. Volumes were up 0.6 percent from June. Eight of the 11 reporting subsectors saw nominal monthly advances led by motor vehicle & parts dealers where demand was up a solid 1.7 percent. Excluding this category, sales climbed a more modest 0.4 percent on the month and 1.6 percent on the year. Elsewhere, general merchandise posted a 1.5 percent increase over June, building materials & garden equipment gained 1.9 percent and furniture & home furnishings grew 2.1 percent. Health & personal care advanced 1.4 percent but clothing & accessories lagged with just a 0.2 percent increase. On the downside, food & beverages dropped a monthly 0.9 percent, electronics & appliances were off 1.7 percent and sporting goods & hobbies slipped 0.2 percent.

July monthly GDP was up 0.2 percent after increasing just 0.1 percent in June. On the year, monthly GDP was up 1.9 percent. Both goods producing and the services sectors were up 0.2 percent on the month. Within the goods producing sector, manufacturing output (0.6 percent) posted its first monthly increase since April and was supported by a solid gain in utilities (2.0 percent). However, construction (down 0.1 percent), agriculture, forestry & fishing (down 0.1 percent) and mining & oil & gas extraction (down 0.3 percent) all registered declines. Services were buoyed mainly by a 0.6 percent monthly increase in retail trade together with a 0.5 percent gain in accommodation & food, Elsewhere advances were relatively muted, including a 0.4 percent increase in arts, entertainment & recreation and 0.3 percent gains in information & culture, finance, insurance & real estate and administrative & waste management services. Monthly declines were limited to just the other services category (0.5 percent).

Bottom line

Investors kept their eyes on the situation in Spain. Economic data were mixed globally. Four central banks are on tap during the first week of October. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces on Tuesday followed by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan, Friday. A plethora of purchasing managers’ indexes for September will be released globally.

Going into the fourth quarter, investors are looking ahead to see whether bond buying programs announced by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve will be reflected in improving economic data. Mainland Chinese markets will be closed for week-long holidays from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7, while the Hong Kong market will remain closed on Monday and Tuesday.

Looking Ahead: October 1 through October 5, 2012

Anne D Picker is the author of International Economic Indicators and Central Banks.