Global Markets

Investors will not be sorry to see September and the third quarter end. All indexes followed here dropped in September (except the Swiss SMI — it edged up 0.1 percent) and in the third quarter. And all are down so far this year. Fortunately, most indexes posted positive gains this past week and reduced somewhat their already steep losses. Sentiment keeps swinging from optimism to pessimism and back again as the decision process in the eurozone plods along.

In September, losses ranged from 1.2 percent for the Topix to 14.3 percent and 14.4 percent for the Hang Seng and SET respectively. On the quarter, only three indexes recorded losses of less than 10 percent — PSEi (down 6.8 percent), Jakarta Composite (down 8.7 percent) and the Bolsa (down 8.4 percent). At the other end of the spectrum, those with the biggest losses included three in Europe — the FTSE MIB (down 26.5 percent), the DAX (down 25.4 percent), the CAC (down 25.1 percent) — and the Hang Seng in Asia (down 21.5 percent).

Investor focus remained on the ongoing developments in Europe after the previous weekend’s IMF meetings in Washington where pressure was applied for the Europeans to get their act together more swiftly. It should be noted that any agreement has to be approved unanimously by all 17 eurozone member states with each country’s parliament in turn having approval powers. The agreement got by two hurdles — Germany and Finland. The focus now shifts to Slovakia amid questions about an approval process already months long and still not complete. Analysts have already said that the fund, even if it passes in all 17 countries, will probably be too small to defend against speculative attacks on deeply indebted European nations.

Worries about a slowing global economy and headlines relating to eurozone fiscal woes have regularly caused sharp lurches in sentiment. Thursday saw some bright spots, with better than expected U.S. data joining a German “yes” vote for the expansion of the European bail-out fund to provide hope to optimists. And on Friday, investors were presented with better-than-expected Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment reports. However, the better news was offset by evidence of economic weakness — U.S. personal income slipped in August for the first time in two years while German August retail sales experienced their biggest monthly decline in four years. While investor focus remained on Europe, one piece of economic news that got their attention was the third sub-50 reading of China’s purchasing mangers survey.

Global Stock Market Recap

Global Stock Market Recap — 2011 Quarterly Results

Europe and the UK

Equities managed to advance last week. The gains managed to reduce the size of the monthly and quarterly losses sustained earlier. The exception was the Swiss SMI, which managed to edge up 0.1 percent in September. Elsewhere, the monthly losses ranged from 2.0 percent for the IBEX to 8.4 percent for the CAC. The FTSE and DAX slid 4.9 percent while the FTSE MIB and OMX dropped 4.7 percent. For the quarter, The FTSE MIB, DAX and CAC plunged 26.5 percent, 25.4 percent and 25.1 percent respectively. The FTSE ended the quarter 13.7 percent lower while the SMI was down 10.6 percent. The quarter ended on a negative note after Chinese manufacturing and German retail sales added to concern about the pace of global growth and as the approval process for the Greek bailout package rumbled on.

Europe’s woes have reignited as Greece attempts to stave off default and spars with its European Union partners over whether it deserves the next tranche of aid next month. Eurozone lawmakers are also taking their time implementing a July overhaul of their rescue fund to give it more crisis fighting tools, while investors question the ability of banks to withstand further market unrest as signs also mount that the economy is losing momentum.

In China, the reading of 49.9 for the September purchasing managers’ index was unchanged from August and signaled a negligible rate of deterioration in the manufacturing sector. The index averaged its lowest quarterly reading since the first quarter of 2009. In other economic news, eurozone inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 3.0 percent — the fastest in almost three years — complicating the European Central Bank’s task as it fights the region’s worsening sovereign debt crisis. German retail sales swooned by 2.9 percent — the most in four years — and the biggest drop since May 2007.

Asia Pacific

Equities here were mostly positive last week which helped cut into monthly and quarterly losses. The picture however, was not pretty after many markets saw some of the heaviest selloffs in the period since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. While economic data were mixed, the continued focus on the European situation blurred other normal market influences.

None of the indexes avoided the rout. Losses ranged from 1.2 percent (Topix) to 14.4 percent (SET). Of the majors, the Nikkei was down 2.8 percent, the Hang Seng lost 14.3 percent, the All Ordinaries sank 6.9 percent and the Shanghai Composite ended the month 8.1 percent lower. The quarterly results were even more dismal. Only the Jakarta Composite and the PSEi managed to escape with losses under 10 percent on the quarter. The Hang Seng plunged 21.5 percent while the Shanghai Composite slid 14.6 percent. The All Ordinaries lost 12.7 percent while the Nikkei ended 11.4 percent lower. The reasons are global — concerns about the worsening debt situation in Europe and slowing global growth.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar benefited from a flight to safety as uncertainty in Europe sent the euro lower for the week. But from day to day, the currencies fluctuated as investors’ interest in riskier assets waxed and waned. The euro strengthened against the dollar when investors increased their bets that the region’s leaders will agree on measures to aid Greece and other member states that are struggling to pay their debts. For example, the euro gained against most of the major currencies after Germany’s Bundestag approved the expansion of a bailout fund to help contain the sovereign debt crisis. The yen touched below 77 per dollar for the first time in two weeks as stocks rose, spurring demand for higher yielding assets.

The euro declined against the yen and the U.S. dollar after German retail sales fell by more than economists forecast and U.S. consumer spending slowed. New Zealand’s dollar extended its second week of losses against its U.S. counterpart after Standard & Poor’s joined Fitch Ratings in cutting the nation’s credit ratings. The Swiss franc strengthened against the euro even after the Swiss National Bank said it will prevent currency gains. The SNB said it will enforce the cap on the franc with all its determination. The SNB on September 6^th imposed a franc ceiling of 1.20 against the euro and resumed purchases of foreign currencies to protect exports as the eurozone debt crisis drove investors toward the relative safety of the Swiss currency.

Selected currencies — weekly results

Indicator scoreboard

EMU

August M3 money supply growth accelerated from a slightly higher revised 2.1 percent in July to 2.8 percent on the year. The ECB's preferred 3-month moving average measure picked up from 2.1 percent to 2.3 percent. The key lending counterpart posted a 12-month gain of 2.6 percent, 0.2 percentage points faster than at the start of the quarter. However, within this, loans to households grew at an unchanged 3.0 percent pace and borrowing for house purchase was similarly steady at a 3.9 percent rate. Annual growth of lending to non-financial corporations was 1.6 percent, again matching the July outcome but borrowing by non-monetary financial intermediaries (excluding insurance companies and pension funds) accelerated from 3.6 percent to 4.6 percent.

September economic sentiment slipped to 95.0 from 98.4 in August. It was the seventh month in succession that sentiment has worsened. The latest slide was widespread and broad-based with all major areas of the eurozone economy registering declines. Confidence in industry dropped 3.2 points to minus 5.9 and was off 2.6 points at minus 19.1 in the consumer sector. Morale in services declined 3.7 points to zero, retail lost 1.1 points to minus 9.8 and construction shed 2.6 points to minus 26.0. Only in industry is confidence still above its long-run average (minus 7.1). Regionally economic sentiment is now above its long-term mean in just Germany but even here it fell another 2.1 points on the month. Among the other larger states, confidence slipped 3.5 points to 96.2 in France, 5.1 points to just 89.0 in Italy and 1.8 points to 90.9 in Spain. Greece registered another 3.1 point slump to 70.6 and Portugal was off 5.5 points at 73.2.

September flash harmonized index of consumer prices accelerated from 2.5 percent in August to 3.0 percent, its fastest rate since October 2008. As usual Eurostat provided no details behind the headline figure and the key core rates will not be released until October 14. Both Germany and Spain saw their national inflation rates climb a provisional 0.3 percentage points this month to 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent respectively. The Italian rate meanwhile, surged from 2.3 percent to 3.5 percent, its fastest pace in nearly three years.

August joblessness dropped 38,000, its first monthly decline since March. However, the fall was not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate from the 10 percent mark at which it has been since May. A total of 15.739 million are unemployed. Regionally the jobless rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 7.9 percent in Italy but remained steady in Germany (6.0 percent) and edged up 0.1 percentage points to 9.9 percent in France and 21.2 percent in Spain. The lowest rate was recorded in Austria (3.7 percent) followed by the Netherlands (4.4 percent).

Germany

September Ifo survey overall business sentiment edged down little more than 1 point to 107.5. The dip reflected mainly a 2 point decline in expectations which, at 98.0, extended its succession of monthly declines to seven. The current conditions measure edged just 0.2 points lower to 117.9 although this was still its third consecutive drop and the weakest reading since January. Across sectors performances were mixed. On the positive side, the wholesale climate index jumped a solid 6 points to 13.1 and confidence in retail was up 1.4 points at 2.9. However, neither came close to reversing their August drops and manufacturing sentiment was off nearly 5 points at 10.6 while morale in services shed more than 3 points to 16.5. Construction also recorded a 3.4 point decline to minus 9.9.

September unemployment was down by 26,000 after a slightly larger revised 9,000 drop in August. The latest drop reduced the number of people out of work to 2.922 million and saw the jobless rate slip to 6.9 percent from 7.0 percent, its first decline since June. With vacancies up 7,000 following a 6,000 increase in mid-quarter, the signs are that despite some cooling since the start of 2011, demand for labor remains quite buoyant. The announcement of the new jobless figures coincided with the release of payroll employment data that showed a 19th consecutive monthly rise in headcount last month. A 29,000 increase was comfortably short of 53,000 average seen over the first half of the year but was still up on July's 21,000 gain and enough to boost headcount to a new record high of 41.151 million.

August retail sales (excluding autos) unexpectedly plummeted 2.9 percent following a revised 0.3 percent gain in July. The drop reduced volumes to their second lowest level of the year. Annual sales growth actually rebounded from a decline of 1.8 percent to an increase of 2.2 percent but this reflected calendar distortions. The limited breakdown provided showed sales of food, drink & tobacco 2.2 percent higher on the year and non-food demand up 2.5 percent. Outside of clothing (down 3.2 percent) all of the main sub-sectors saw annual gains with mail order (8.4 percent) especially strong.

France

Second quarter gross domestic product was unrevised on the quarter leaving the level of real GDP unchanged from the first three months of the year when it expanded a solid 0.9 percent. Annual growth inched up to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent. Among the GDP expenditure components, the only revision of note was to gross fixed capital formation which now shows a 0.6 percent quarterly gain, down from the 0.9 percent originally reported. This reflected mainly weaker business investment (0.3 percent from 0.7 percent) while household investment (1.3 percent from 1.4 percent) was also shaded slightly softer. As a result, final domestic demand subtracted 0.3 percentage points from the quarterly change in GDP from the initial 0.2 percentage points. Elsewhere, the quarterly slide in household spending was confirmed at a disappointingly large 0.7 percent and government consumption remained at up 0.1 percent. Similarly with both exports (unchanged) and imports (down 0.9 percent) unrevised, net exports added the same 0.3 percentage points to the bottom line as indicated last time.

August household spending on manufactured goods edged up just 0.1 percent. The minimal gain failed to reverse a 0.3 percent drop in July and left sales just 0.4 percent higher on the year. The headline data were boosted by a rebound in autos where sales grew 0.9 percent on the month after a 1.5 percent slump in July. However, household goods followed a 0.7 percent slide at the start of the quarter with an even steeper 1.7 percent decline and textiles were off 2.3 percent after a 1.0 percent rise last time. The other products category also saw demand dip 0.2 percent on the month.

August producer prices were unchanged on the month and were 6.3 percent higher on the year. Energy prices dropped 2.2 percent but the decline was offset by more modest increases in electrical & electronic equipment (0.6 percent), transport (0.3 percent) and in the other manufactures category (0.3 percent). Food charges were steady as higher meat prices essentially cancelled out falls in the cost of dairy products and drinks.

Italy

Second quarter unemployment rate dipped to 8.0 percent from a downwardly revised first quarter level of 8.1 percent. This was its lowest reading since the third quarter of 2009 and constituted a 0.5 percentage point drop from the year ago period. The monthly data for August showed a further 0.1 percentage point decline in the jobless rate to 7.9 percent. This corresponds with a 1.8 percent drop from July in the number of people out of work to 1.965 million.

Asia/Pacific

Japan

August retail sales sank 2.6 percent on the year after increasing 0.6 percent in July. This was the first drop in three months. Analysts had been expecting a decline of 0.6 percent. The primary reasons for the decline were an 18.8 percent plunge in motor vehicle sales and a 19.3 percent drop in machinery and equipment. General merchandise sales slumped 3.4 percent. However, several categories reported sales gains including general fabrics, apparel & accessories (up 1.3 percent), food & beverages (up 1.2 percent), fuel (up 3.1 percent) and drug & toiletry stores (4.4 percent). Sales in large scale retail stores were also down 2.6 percent on the year after increasing 0.8 percent in July.

August unemployment rate dropped to 4.3 percent from 4.7 percent in July. The number of unemployed was 2.76 million, a decline of 450,000 from a year ago. Employment dropped 290,000 from a year ago to 59.67 million. The labour force participation rate was 59.2 percent, down 0.7 percent from a year ago. The data continue to exclude the three earthquake hit prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima.

August consumer price index was up 0.1 percent on the month and 0.2 percent on the year. This was the second monthly increase when compared with the previous year. Core CPI excluding just fresh food was also up 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent on the year for a second consecutive increase. Prices of tobacco, gasoline and utilities helped pushed prices higher. Energy jumped 7.1 percent after increase 6.1 percent on the year in July. Core CPI excluding fresh food and energy was up 0.1 percent but slumped 0.5 percent on the year for the second month.

August household spending dropped 4.1 percent on the year after falling 2.1 percent the month before. Spending was down in all major categories with the exception of housing which was up 6.3 percent on the year, clothing & footwear which was up 1.8 percent and medical care which was 7.2 percent above a year ago. Transportation & communication swooned 12.6 percent while culture & recreation dropped 6.6 percent. Fuel, light & water charges were down 7.3 percent from a year ago. These data combined with yesterday’s retail sales report signals that the consumer continues to refrain from spending.

August unemployment rate dropped to 4.3 percent from 4.7 percent in July. The number of unemployed was 2.76 million, a decline of 450,000 from a year ago. Employment dropped 290,000 from a year ago to 59.67 million. The labour force participation rate was 59.2 percent, down 0.7 percent from a year ago. The data continue to exclude the three earthquake hit prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima.

August industrial production was up 0.8 percent on the month but down 0.8 percent when compared with last year. It was the fifth consecutive monthly increase. METI indicated that Japanese output has largely recovered from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. But at the same time it said that output will need to be closely watched going forward. The August output increase was attributed to autos, steel and semiconductors. The industries that mainly contributed to the increase are transport equipment, iron & steel and electronic parts & devices. Commodities that contributed to the monthly increase included large passenger cars, separate type air conditioners and drive, transmission & control parts. According to the METI production forecast, production is anticipated to decline 2.5 percent in September but rebound 3.8 percent in October.

Americas

Canada

August industrial product prices were up 0.5 percent and 5.2 percent on the year. The raw materials price index dropped 3.2 percent on the month and was 13.3 percent above its year ago level. The monthly increase in the IPPI was largely attributable to a 1.7 percent jump in the price of motor vehicles and other transport equipment together with a 0.7 percent gain in chemicals & chemical products. Electrical & communications also saw a 0.9 percent advance and miscellaneous manufactures were up 2.5 percent. The other major boost came from a weaker Canadian dollar and without this effect IPPI would have declined 0.2 percent from the start of the quarter. However, headline prices would have shown a stronger monthly increase but for a 1.1 percent drop in the price of petroleum & coal products excluding which the IPPI would have risen 0.7 percent from July and 2.4 percent from a year ago. The only other decline of note was in miscellaneous non-manufactures where charges dropped 2.2 percent on the month. The RMPI was dragged lower by a 7 percent monthly slump in the cost of mineral fuels excluding which the overall index would have edged up 0.3 percent. Non-ferrous metals (down 2.3 percent) also had a negative impact but there were partially offsetting gains elsewhere.

July monthly gross domestic product expanded 0.3 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year. In line with June, the goods producing sector led the way, posting a 0.4 percent monthly gain, twice the rate achieved in services. However, in contrast to the last three months, manufacturing output finally registered positive growth. A 1.4 percent bounce reflected mainly a 2.1 percent jump in durables although nondurables (0.5 percent) also chipped in. There was also a weather-related 1.5 percent gain in utilities but the other sub-sectors all registered declines of between 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent. Activity in services was underpinned by a 1.5 percent increase in wholesale trade and a 1.8 percent spike in transportation & warehousing following industrial unrest in June. The only other advance of note was in accommodation & food services (0.4 percent). On the downside, retail trade dropped 0.7 percent and the other services category contracted 0.3 percent. Elsewhere, most areas saw little change in output from June.

Bottom line

Investor focus remained on the European debt saga and on Global growth prospects. The deluge of new economic data at week’s end did not alleviate investor qualms about growth.

Four central banks are meeting next week: the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank and the Banks of England and Japan. None are expected to change policy. The Bank of England is expected to add to its asset purchase program, but is expected to wait until November when it releases its next Inflation Report. The chances that the ECB might cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points faded after the flash harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 3.0 percent on the year, up from 2.5 percent in August. It will be Jean Claude Trichet’s last meeting as President of the ECB — Mario Draghi will take over on November 1.

There are numerous important data releases as well including September manufacturing and services PMIs and employment reports from the U.S. and Canada. Now that the quarter is over, it will be interesting to see if investors will turn their attention to the earnings season which will begin to build at mid month.

Looking Ahead: October 3 through October 7, 2011

Anne D Picker is the author of International Economic Indicators and Central Banks.